Armenia votes in election framed as referendum on Pashinyan's peace deal and pivot from Russia

A geopolitical crossroads

Armenia's parliamentary election on June 7 is shaping up as a de facto referendum on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's strategy to normalise relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey while reducing dependence on Russia. Pashinyan's Civil Contract party leads polls with roughly 30% support, though some surveys show him as high as 42%. His main rival, Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan of the Strong Armenia party, trails at between 6% and 11%.

Pashinyan has framed the vote around a peace deal with Azerbaijan, signed at the White House last August, and a proposed transit corridor across southern Armenia that would connect Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia. He describes his vision as turning the landlocked nation of 3 million into a "crossroads of peace."

Armenia has become a proper country. Our place in the world is more recognisable.

Russian pressure campaign

Moscow has escalated economic and political pressure in the weeks before the vote. Russia restricted a wide range of Armenian exports, threatened to cut off cheap gas and oil supplies, and warned it could suspend Armenia from a Moscow-led economic union over Yerevan's pursuit of European Union membership. Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned Armenia against "a Ukrainian scenario" if it continued its EU rapprochement.

Armenia sends roughly a third of its exports to Russia and imports the overwhelming majority of its gas from there. Russia also maintains a large military base on Armenian territory. Surveys now show a third of Armenians view Russia as a threat, behind only Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Getting closer to the EU is also a means of pressure used by the Armenian government in its relations with Russia. If relations were to deteriorate further, Yerevan could break off any rapprochement with the EU to satisfy Putin. It's a form of bluff.

Opposition arrests and vote-buying allegations

Armenian authorities arrested six candidates from Strong Armenia on Saturday, a day before the vote, state media reported. No official reason was given. Karapetyan is already under house arrest on charges of calling for the overthrow of the government, accusations he dismisses as politically motivated.

Separately, the Investigative Committee announced the detention of more than 40 people suspected of vote-buying linked to Strong Armenia. A parliamentary candidate allegedly conspired with a group to pay between 100,000 and 500,000 drams (roughly €230 to €1,140) to over a hundred voters. The Interior Ministry said earlier this week it had identified at least 78 cases of pre-election crimes and detained 44 people.

Western endorsement and the Karabakh legacy

Pashinyan has won a resounding endorsement from U.S. President Donald Trump, who helped broker the meeting where Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed the initial peace agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited Yerevan this year to sign a cooperation agreement. Europe is watching closely, seeing a clear interest in Armenia "being more sovereign, more autonomous, and more able to trade westwards," according to Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe.

The election is the first since Azerbaijan's 2023 lightning offensive retook Nagorno-Karabakh, prompting the exodus of around 100,000 ethnic Armenians. That defeat shattered faith in Russia's security guarantees and accelerated Pashinyan's westward pivot. Armenian civil society groups have raised alarms over what they describe as Russian state-sponsored disinformation efforts in the lead-up to the vote.

This is a historic moment for Armenia.

What comes next

Opinion polls predict Civil Contract will emerge as the largest party but could fall short of the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution. Around 2.4 million Armenians are eligible to vote. The Central Election Commission late on Friday rejected a lawsuit from another opposition group seeking to ban Strong Armenia from participating. Russia's foreign ministry has already questioned the legitimacy of the election, citing what it calls political persecution of opponents by Armenian authorities.