Aramco CEO warns global oil stockpiles could take two years to refill after 3 billion barrels lost

Depleted stockpiles and extended recovery timeline

Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned that global crude oil and refined fuel stockpiles have fallen to dangerously low levels following seven months of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Speaking in London on 5 October 2026 at the Energy Intelligence Forum, his first public address since the war started, Nasser estimated that replenishing global inventories will take up to two years even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Regional supply disruptions have removed nearly 3 billion barrels of oil from the market, representing approximately half of normal transit volumes through Hormuz over that timeframe. Worldwide emergency withdrawals have already taken more than 1 billion barrels from existing storage to cushion the shortfall. Nasser emphasized that the international energy system is under sustained strain, with commercial and strategic buffers now depleted to critical thresholds.

Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify. Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years.

Limits of strategic releases and available storage

The Group of Seven nations agreed on 2 October 2026 to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from stockpiles over the next four months. That decision follows an earlier release of 325 million barrels by International Energy Agency member states against a 400-million-barrel pledge made in March 2026. Nasser noted that emergency measures of this scale only provide temporary relief to bridge a single winter rather than correcting underlying supply imbalances. He explained that less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain in global storage, and less than 10% of that volume is practically accessible because the remainder forms the operational minimum required to operate refining and pipeline networks. Consequently, finding even 100 million barrels of uncommitted reserves has proven difficult for consumer nations.

Security threats to Saudi infrastructure and maritime routes

Physical security risks have also escalated across Saudi oil infrastructure. On 4 October 2026, the company's East-West pipeline was attacked, following prior strikes launched by Houthi fighters in Yemen and Iranian-aligned groups in Iraq against Saudi refineries, ports, and transit links. Nasser stated that Aramco studies every strike to enhance protection, maintaining the operational capacity to manage ten simultaneous incidents by deploying specialized technical repair crews to affected facilities. He expressed concern that modern digital tools are compounding physical threats to energy logistics. According to Nasser, open-source resources such as satellite imagery and maritime tracking registries are increasingly being exploited to target tankers and energy facilities.

Tools of transparency should not become ammunition for aggression.

Market conditions and rerouted supply flows

Tanker shipments from Gulf exporters reached 15.5 million barrels per day in September 2026, representing more than 80% of pre-war export rates according to data from Kpler. This export volume was achieved by organizing a complex shuttle system through the Strait of Hormuz. However, these transit operations remain costly, and physical cargo contracts for North Sea crude scheduled for October delivery reached their highest price levels since April 2026. Nasser urged global policymakers to focus on structural supply security rather than short-term inventory drawdowns. Aramco is also exploring additional alternative transit routes to maintain export commitments to international buyers.