Anthropic presses ahead with IPO as tech rout cuts its valuation target

A sharp sell-off in tech stocks

Anthropic is pressing ahead with plans to list its shares before the US Thanksgiving holiday, even as a sharp tech sell-off has pushed the expected valuation well below the $2tn that some of its most bullish investors had hoped for. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 5.5% on 5 November, placing the index in correction territory and almost 12% below its high of 6 October. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% that day, and US stocks lost $3.2tn in a single session of chaotic trading. The Nasdaq won back some of those losses on Friday, 6 November, but uncertainty about market direction lingered into the weekend.

Why investors pulled back

Investors pointed to the Democratic sweep of the midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November, which rested partly on promises to slow the construction of data centres. Concerns about rising borrowing costs and the spending plans of AI companies also weighed on prices, and lenders have reportedly pulled back from high-risk projects. The semiconductor index SOX fell 12.3%, and fears of a slowdown in data center buildouts spread through the supply chain. Anthropic has nearly $900bn in computing and infrastructure commitments involving Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Broadcom, so its financial fortunes reach chip makers, networking companies and power suppliers.

Analysts question the valuation

Stephen Myrow, a managing partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, criticised investors who claim they can confidently value the company at present. He pointed to the many unknowns in the market and said the sell-off could take a while to settle.

“How people can legitimately say that they can confidently value Anthropic right now is nuts.”

Anthropic declined to comment on the sell-off and the outlook for its listing.

Valuation targets have moved

Anthropic's target valuation has fallen sharply within a month. Entering October, the company was reportedly targeting $2tn, and in mid-October investors put the figure around $1.5tn. After the 5 November sell-off, discussions had reportedly fallen as low as $1tn, while Bloomberg cited investors valuing the company between $1.1tn and $1.3tn. Multiple investors said the company expects to raise $80bn-$100bn at a valuation of between $1.25tn and $1.75tn, which is above its current $965bn level. The rival OpenAI has also struggled to complete its own private funding round, cutting the valuation it seeks from $1.4tn to $1.25tn and the round from $30bn to $20bn.

Start of October 2026 target2,000

Mid-October investor estimate1,500

Low point in reported talks1,000

Current valuation965

Start of October 2026 target

2000 $bn

Mid-October investor estimate

1500 $bn

Low point in reported talks

1000 $bn

Current valuation

965 $bn

Data from the article text

Listing timing and next steps

Multiple investors said Anthropic still intends to list before the US Thanksgiving holiday, and more than half a dozen said it would go public even if chief executive Dario Amodei has to accept a price cut. The odds of a delay have risen on prediction markets. Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC, told Bloomberg Radio that the AI trade is driven by a series of narratives, and that the story that the AI cycle is dead is one he does not believe. He argued that a conservative valuation, even one below $1tn, might be the best way to reassure markets. He warned that the worst case would be a repeat of the SpaceX IPO, where initial buying euphoria reversed quickly.