AfD reaches 44.4% in Saxony-Anhalt election projections as CDU drops to 18.3%

Election projections in Magdeburg

Projections on Sunday evening placed the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in first place in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament election, securing 44.4% of the vote according to ZDF projections measured at 19:52. The preliminary distribution assigned the party 41 seats in the 83-member Magdeburg Landtag, leaving it one seat short of an absolute majority. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze, fell to 18.3%, representing a loss of 18.6 percentage points compared to the 2021 state election. Die Linke followed with 9.2%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) reached 8.6%, and the Greens attained 8.4%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) received 4.8%, placing it just below the five percent threshold for parliamentary entry, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell short of returning to the state legislature.

Mobilization and voter migration

Voter turnout in the state reached 80.0%, rising from 60.3% recorded in 2021 to mark the highest participation level in Saxony-Anhalt history. Analyses conducted by Infratest dimap for ARD showed that the AfD gained 157,000 voters from the non-voter camp, accounting for 56% of its 279,000 new supporters. The party drew an additional 83,000 previous CDU voters, 19,000 from the FDP, 11,000 from Die Linke, 7,000 from the SPD, and 2,000 from the Greens, while losing 2,000 voters to BSW. Survey data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF found that 42% of the AfD electorate was composed of former non-voters, 29% had previously supported the party in 2021, and 15% switched from the CDU.

Leadership and campaign issues

Speaking on election night, Minister-President Sven Schulze conceded the outcome and acknowledged the shifts in the state electorate.

The people have sent a signal.

Schulze's personal approval trailed the figures of his predecessor Reiner Haseloff. Infratest dimap data showed 38% voter satisfaction with Schulze, compared to the 67% satisfaction rating Haseloff held in 2021. For the preferred minister-president, slightly under half of respondents favoured Schulze remaining in office, while 38% supported AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund. The AfD, classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization by state intelligence authorities, campaigned with Siegmund on state-level issues. Survey polling by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicated that voters rated the AfD ahead of the CDU on competence in both the economy and education, which respondents identified as the two leading policy priorities.

Demographic distributions and smaller parties

Demographic breakdowns revealed wide voting differences by gender across the state. Infratest dimap data indicated that more than half of male voters supported the AfD, with 16% choosing the CDU. Among female voters, AfD support stood at 40%, while 20% backed the CDU, and 10% each voted for Die Linke, the SPD, and the Greens. Smaller parties benefited from higher overall participation, with the CDU adding 28,000 previous non-voters, Die Linke gaining 15,000, the SPD adding 13,000, and the Greens drawing 10,000. Progressive civil society group Campact ran a campaign supporting the SPD and Greens to prevent single-party majorities. Official preliminary results are scheduled to follow after midnight.