AfD wins projected 44.5% in Saxony-Anhalt state election to defeat CDU

Election projections in Saxony-Anhalt

Initial projections and exit polls from public broadcaster ARD place Alternative for Germany (AfD) in first place in the Saxony-Anhalt state election on 6 September 2026. The party is projected to secure between 44% and 44.5% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 result in the eastern state of 2.1 million residents. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led in the state by Sven Schulze, dropped to second place with 18.4% to 18.5% of ballots. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens crossed the 5% parliamentary threshold according to exit poll projections. At party headquarters on Sunday evening, AfD supporters sang the national anthem as the projected figures appeared.

We have made history in this state.

Social media strategy and candidate profile

The AfD campaign in Saxony-Anhalt was led by Ulrich Siegmund, a former salesman who previously marketed scent diffusion systems to retail venues and public transportation operators. Siegmund campaigned across the state on a blue Simson moped, invoking nostalgia for daily community life in the former German Democratic Republic. His campaign relied heavily on digital video platforms, gathering more than 850,000 followers on TikTok and 28 million video views since June. A study by the University of Potsdam found that Siegmund accounted for nearly two-thirds of all political video views analyzed during the Saxony-Anhalt state campaign. His videos averaged 214,000 views each, compared to 5,600 views for CDU candidate Sven Schulze.

Coalition arithmetic and the firewall

Domestic intelligence services classify the AfD state branch in Saxony-Anhalt as right-wing extremist, a classification Siegmund rejects. State-level government in Germany controls regional police, cultural funding, and local education policy. Traditional mainstream parties have maintained a policy known as the firewall or cordon sanitaire, refusing to enter formal governing coalitions with the AfD. Parliamentary arithmetic depends on whether smaller parties surpass the 5% electoral threshold. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) approached the threshold and expressed openness to cooperating on individual policies. Siegmund campaigned on refusing coalitions, but party officials indicated potential flexibility regarding issue-by-issue agreements.

It has been an extremely tough and intense election campaign.

Federal consequences for Berlin

On the eve of the election, thousands of counter-protesters demonstrated in the regional capital of Magdeburg opposing the party. The election outcome reflects persistent structural issues across eastern Germany, including population loss, lower average income relative to western states, and industrial adjustments. The AfD state platform advocates strict immigration controls, mass deportations referred to by the party as remigration, and closer diplomatic relations with Russia. The defeat of the CDU increases political pressure on federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, where the federal government faces slowing economic growth and declining popularity.