AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as Die Linke takes Berlin and CDU falls below 5%

AfD victory in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

State election results released overnight by the electoral commission show Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the strongest force in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Led by candidate Leif-Erik Holm, the party took 38.2% of the vote and 32 seats in the 71-seat state parliament in Schwerin. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), headed by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, finished second with 35.5% and 29 seats, down from 39.6% five years earlier. For the first time in 28 years, the SPD failed to secure the top spot in the state. Die Linke received 6.5% and five seats, while the Greens secured 5.7% and five seats. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) fell to 4.9%, missing the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, alongside the Free Democratic Party (FDP) at 1.0% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 4.8%.

Left party triumph in Berlin

In the state election for the Berlin House of Representatives, Die Linke took first place under lead candidate Elif Eralp. The party secured 25.6% of the vote, its strongest result in Berlin election history. This outcome opens the path for Die Linke to lead the regional administration and install a governing mayor in the Rotes Rathaus. The CDU placed second in the capital with 18.9%, followed by the AfD with 16.1%. The Greens received 14.3%, while the SPD took 12.1%. Neither the BSW at 4.7% nor the FDP at 2.6% reached the 5% threshold needed to enter the Berlin parliament. In both states, 16-year-old citizens were eligible to cast ballots in state elections for the first time.

Coalition arithmetic and government formation

Although the AfD finished as the largest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, it lacks an absolute majority and remains without coalition partners in Schwerin. The previous governing coalition of the SPD and Die Linke lost its majority, as their combined 34 seats fall two short of the 36 needed. A three-party coalition combining the SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens holds 39 seats, which provides a working majority. All three parties explicitly excluded any government cooperation with the AfD. The AfD now holds the largest legislative faction in three eastern German state parliaments, following earlier election outcomes in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt.

Chancellor Merz resists calls to step down

The results generated immediate pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as the CDU suffered its second state-level defeat in two weeks following Saxony-Anhalt. Merz described the outcome in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a catastrophe during an address after polls closed on Sunday evening. National opinion polls show Merz with a 13% approval rating after 16 months in office. Despite calls for his resignation and discussion of a mid-term replacement, Merz stated after a CDU leadership meeting that he will serve his full four-year mandate and continue federal reform plans.

What needs to be done now requires firmness, perseverance, and patience. I will show all of that as CDU chairman and above all as federal chancellor of our country.

Addressing the election outcome during his appearance, Merz defended his policy agenda as an essential response to political shifts across the country.

I would even go so far as to say that these reforms are an antidote to the authoritarian poison that, with the fascination of authoritarianism, penetrates deeper and deeper into our society.

Earlier in the week, Merz received declarations of support from eight CDU state premiers and Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Markus Söder.