Trump stawia Iranowi ultimatum. Grozi zniszczeniem infrastruktury energetycznej

One month into the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, President Donald Trump issued a stark ultimatum on March 30, 2026, threatening to destroy all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island — and potentially its desalination plants — if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened and a peace agreement is not reached before a deadline reportedly set for next Monday, April 6. Trump made the threat on his Truth Social platform while simultaneously claiming that Washington is holding „serious conversations with a new and more reasonable regime” in Iran. The dual-track posture — maximum military threat paired with optimistic talk of imminent diplomacy — reflects what analysts and multiple sources describe as a deeply contradictory U.S. strategy that has left allies, markets, and adversaries struggling to read Washington's intentions. Iran's government flatly denied that any direct negotiations with the United States are underway, calling U.S. conditions conveyed through third parties „highly excessive.”

Pakistan steps in as mediator, Ghalibaf named key interlocutor Trump identified Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, as the key Iranian interlocutor in what the U.S. president described as productive talks. Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed that his country would host talks „in the next few days,” saying Pakistan „feels honored to facilitate meaningful conversations between the two parties for a comprehensive and lasting agreement.” Iran, however, maintained that no diplomatic channel with Washington is open, framing the Pakistani mediation effort as addressing the Strait of Hormuz blockade rather than broader hostilities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that the U.S. would achieve its objectives „in weeks” and that Washington would not allow Iran to impose a toll on shipping through the strait. Rubio also appeared to contradict Trump's framing of a changed Iranian regime, saying on television: „We are dealing with a 47-year-old regime that has a lot of people inside it who are not necessarily followers of diplomacy and peace.” The contradictions between Trump and his own Secretary of State within minutes of each other underscored the strategic confusion that analysts say has given Tehran room to maneuver.

„Zawsze przyjęlibyśmy scenariusz, w którym Iranem kierują ludzie z inną wizją przyszłości, a jeśli pojawi się taka okazja, wykorzystamy ją” — Marco Rubio via eldiario.es

U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury, began on February 28, 2026, with strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026. The conflict marked a dramatic escalation following years of tensions over Iran's nuclear program and its regional influence. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass, has remained blocked since the start of hostilities, causing significant disruption to international energy markets and supply chains. The war began roughly one month before the current date of March 31, 2026.

Ground invasion of Kharg Island floated as military option The U.S. military presence in the Middle East has grown to over , with more forces reportedly still arriving, raising the prospect of a ground operation that Trump had ruled out just over a week earlier. Trump told the Financial Times that he is considering the seizure of Kharg Island, describing it as an easy target: „I think they have no defenses. We could conquer it very easily.” Analysts and reporting from multiple outlets pushed back on that assessment, noting that Iran has long prepared for such an offensive and is believed to hold significant drone and missile reserves in the area. According to LaSexta, military experts are pointing to April 17 and 18 — the dates of the next new moon — as potentially decisive, since the complete darkness over the Strait of Hormuz would provide optimal conditions for a covert U.S. operation. The Wall Street Journal reported separately that Trump has also discussed with advisers the possibility of withdrawing from Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, potentially handing the initiative to European and Gulf allies to lead a reopening effort. That option would represent a significant retreat from Trump's stated objectives and would place the burden of resolving the energy crisis on Washington's partners. Iranian analyst Daniel Bashandeh, cited by 20minutos, argued that Trump's real goal has narrowed to managing the Hormuz blockade as a crisis, saying a ceasefire centered on the strait is more likely than a comprehensive peace agreement.

„Jeśli z jakiegoś powodu porozumienie nie zostanie wkrótce osiągnięte, co jest prawdopodobne, i jeśli Cieśnina Ormuz nie zostanie natychmiast otwarta, zakończymy nasz ukochany „pobyt” w Iranie, całkowicie niszcząc wszystkie jego elektrownie, szyby naftowe i wyspę Chark” — Donald Trump via 20minutos

NATO intercepts fourth Iranian missile, Lebanon death toll reaches 1,247 The conflict continued to generate regional spillover, with NATO shooting down an Iranian missile launched toward Turkey, the fourth such interception since the war began. Israel's ongoing offensive in southern Lebanon has resulted in 1,247 deaths over five weeks, including 124 children, according to El País. Three United Nations blue helmets were also killed in shooting incidents over the weekend, adding to international pressure over the conduct of operations on the Lebanese front. The broader strategic picture, according to analyst Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, has shifted inside Iran itself: where early phases of the war focused on regime survival, current Iranian discourse increasingly emphasizes achieving strategic outcomes and reshaping the long-term regional balance. Former National Security Council director for Iran Nate Swanson, who served from 2022 to 2025 and was later appointed as an Iran negotiator by the Trump administration, was cited by eldiario.es as believing the U.S. has squandered a potential opening that arose after Ali Khamenei's death. The contradictory signals from Washington — threatening total destruction while announcing imminent peace — have kept global financial markets volatile and, according to La Razón, provided Iran with political oxygen by demonstrating that the world's most powerful military alliance does not have a clear endgame.

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