When record financial results trigger a stock market sell-off, and state-owned giants cut half their workforce to achieve a "black zero," the era of cheap optimism ends. Markets have stopped pricing in promises, demanding immediate efficiency.
The end of the hope premium. Records are no longer enough. American Nvidia announced revenues of $68.1 billion, representing a 73% year-on-year increase. Under normal conditions, such data would trigger euphoria on the trading floors. Meanwhile, the company's share price fell by 5.5%, dragging the Nasdaq Composite index down by 1.2%. Investors, instead of celebrating the triumph of artificial intelligence, focused on warnings from CFO Colette Kress about "very tight" supply. The market sent a clear signal: in 2026, we are no longer paying for potential; we are paying exclusively for flawless execution.
A similar chill is blowing from Japan, where regulators no longer intend to tolerate the dominance of tech giants. The entry of officials from the Japan Fair Trade Commission into the Microsoft Japan offices in Tokyo marks the end of an era. Suspicions of blocking competition on the Azure platform show that the time of unpunished expansion of digital ecosystems has come to an end. In the case of both Nvidia and Microsoft, market valuation is colliding with physical and legal barriers.
Black zeros instead of visions. Where technology slows down under the weight of its own valuations, traditional industry cuts to the bone to survive. Germany's DB Cargo, under the leadership of its new CEO Bernhard Osburg, is eliminating 6,200 jobs. This is 44% of all positions in the company's German structures. There is one goal: to achieve "black zeros" by 2026. There is no room here for sentiment or social protection, which for years was the hallmark of the Deutsche Bahn group. Osburg is liquidating administration and sales departments, shifting the operational weight to the European level, which in practice means escaping high labor costs in Germany.
The concept of the "black zero" (Schwarze Null) in German economic policy symbolizes a budget without a deficit. For years, it was the doctrine of Angela Merkel's government, signifying the absolute priority of fiscal balance over investment, which was often criticized by economists as a brake on development.
The radicalism of these actions contrasts with the sleepy atmosphere in the UK. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is trying to calm markets by avoiding sudden tax moves, even though the Institute for Fiscal Studies warns of a budget gap of £30 billion. The decline in tax revenues, caused by lower net immigration, is another variable that politicians would prefer to ignore. The British government, like the board of DB Cargo, has its back against the wall. The difference is that the German carrier has already pulled the emergency brake, while London is still hoping that economic forecasts will improve on their own.
The renaissance of pragmatism. In this landscape of cuts and declines, a paradox emerges in Leipzig. While the freight railway is folding its sails, Deutsche Aircraft is building a factory for D328eco regional planes. Professor Hartmut Fricke from the Dresden University of Technology predicts a renaissance of short-haul flights. This is a brutal verification of dreams of rail as the only valid means of transport. Since trains are inefficient and road infrastructure is unreliable, the market is returning to solutions that simply work – even if they are less ecological.
The condition for the success of the project in Leipzig is the availability of SAF fuels, but pragmatism dictates the terms. Manager Sebastian Böhnl sees demand where railway strategists see only costs. This is a return to the fundamentals of economics: the service must be available and profitable. If large jets are too expensive and trains are unpunctual, the gap will be filled by turboprops. Ideology is giving way to logistics.
Reality correction. One could argue that the 75% growth in Nvidia's data center revenues or the investment in an aircraft factory are signals of a bull market, and the layoffs at DB Cargo are just a local problem of a poorly managed company. Enthusiasts will say that the VIX index rose only slightly and the FTSE 100 is breaking records. However, such a view ignores the common denominator: the rising cost of capital and the dwindling patience of investors. Each of these events is part of a global process of repricing – the revaluation of risk.
When Bernhard Osburg talks about the necessity of adjusting costs to market realities by 2030, and Jensen Huang hits a wall of expectations despite exponential growth in demand, the same mechanism is visible. Money has stopped being free, and time has stopped being elastic. Companies that cannot turn promises into cash here and now – whether due to a regulatory block in Japan or overstaffing in Germany – are ruthlessly punished.
„„The market is set up to prove its point, and Nvidia just didn't quite do it with those results.”” (The market is set up to prove its point, and Nvidia just didn't quite do it with those results.) — Tom Graff
We are living in a moment where Excel finally defeats PowerPoint. Investors and boards have stopped buying visions of "European players" or the "AI revolution" if they don't see immediate coverage in the "net profit" column. The future has arrived, it has turned out to be expensive, and it requires repayment in hard currency, not in strategy slides for 2030.
Scale of job reductions at DB Cargo: Current employment: 14000, Layoffs: 6200, Remaining: 7800 6200 — jobs to be eliminated as part of the DB Cargo recovery plan SAF VIX
Perspektywy mediów: The text may be perceived as a criticism of state interventionism and a defense of market verification of unprofitable projects. The analysis ignores the social costs of transformation, focusing on financial indicators as the sole measure of success.