WTO raises 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9% as AI demand counters Middle East war disruptions

Upward revision driven by technology spending

The World Trade Organization released its updated Global Trade Outlook on Thursday, raising its forecast for 2026 global merchandise trade volume growth from 1.9% to 3.9%. For 2027, the trade body expects goods trade to expand by 4.1%, compared with the 2.9% predicted in March. In 2025, world trade growth stood at 4.6%. The revision follows a 3.5% expansion in merchandise trade during the first half of 2026, driven by corporate expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Global gross domestic product is projected to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

Artificial intelligence equipment fuels goods trade

Trade in goods required for artificial intelligence systems, including semiconductors and servers, rose 67% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. These products accounted for 47% of total global merchandise trade growth during that six-month period. Hardware for artificial intelligence data centres is primarily exported by a small group of East and Southeast Asian economies, including Taiwan, Malaysia, and South Korea. Globally, ten economies account for 85% of exports and 80% of imports of goods linked to artificial intelligence. In the United States alone, corporate spending on data centres and computer equipment is projected to reach between $660 billion and $765 billion in 2026, representing a 77% increase over 2025.

Robert Staiger, chief economist at the WTO, addressed the trajectory of technology investment in the report.

The artificial intelligence boom has not only not moderated, as we anticipated in our initial March estimates, but has accelerated, becoming the great international engine.

Adaptation across disrupted energy and transport routes

Trade flows experienced friction following the outbreak of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in February 2026, which led to temporary closures along the Strait of Hormuz. Middle Eastern exports of liquefied natural gas fell 47% in the first half of the year, while regional crude oil exports decreased by 24%. Alternative suppliers limited the broader decline in global exports to approximately 1% for liquefied natural gas and 6% for crude oil. Global imports of nitrogen fertilizers declined 2.8% below recent averages as shipments moved through alternate ports and corridors. By July, global container shipping volumes grew 3.9% relative to the start of the year.

Institutional frameworks and commercial services

WTO chief economist Robert Staiger told Frankfurter Allgemeine that existing international trade frameworks helped mitigate market disruptions. Most-favoured-nation rules continue to govern 72% of global merchandise trade despite tariffs established under the administration of US President Donald Trump. While physical goods trade expanded, the WTO lowered its 2026 growth forecast for commercial services trade from 4.8% to 3.3%. The reduction in services projections reflects contractions across transport, international travel, and tourism.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the WTO, evaluated the updated trade indicators.

The figures demonstrate the resilience of trade in practice.

Global spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence is projected to grow by more than 30% throughout 2026, with WTO economists projecting further expenditure growth between 10% and 20% in 2027.