Futuro Nazionale catches Lega at 5.3% as Vannacci reshapes Italy's right-wing landscape

The numbers that shook the right

Futuro Nazionale, the party founded by former general Roberto Vannacci, rose half a percentage point in the weekly SWG poll (fieldwork 10–15 June) to reach 5.3%, precisely the same score recorded for Matteo Salvini's League, which lost 0.3 points. The tie caps a rapid ascent: Vannacci's movement was barely a blip a few months ago and now threatens to overtake one of the three pillars of the centre-right coalition.

Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia remains the country's largest party but slipped 0.4 points to 27.9%, its lowest SWG reading in roughly a year. Since a January 2026 survey, FdI has shed 3.2 percentage points, a decline that in absolute terms exceeds even the League's erosion (which fell from 8% to 5.3% over the same period).

What drove Vannacci's jump

Multiple outlets point to two events that fell within the fieldwork window: a high-profile television duel with journalist Lilli Gruber on the talk show Otto e mezzo and a constituent assembly held in Rome over the previous weekend. Both generated extensive coverage and appear to have mobilised a segment of the right-wing electorate dissatisfied with the governing coalition.

The rest of the field

Elly Schlein's Partito Democratico edged up 0.1 to 22.1%, while Giuseppe Conte's Movimento 5 Stelle gained 0.2 to 13.3%. Forza Italia, led by Antonio Tajani, rose 0.2 to 7.2%. Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra was stable at 6.5%. Azione (Carlo Calenda) slipped 0.1 to 3.5%, Italia Viva (Matteo Renzi) stayed at 2.4%, and +Europa added 0.1 to 1.6%. Noi Moderati fell to 1.1% and Ora! held at 1%.

A competing survey tells a different story

The Agi/Youtrend Supermedia, which aggregates polls conducted between 28 May and 10 June, paints a similar picture but with different magnitudes. It puts Fratelli d'Italia at 28.3% (down 0.1), PD at 21.4% (down 0.8, the party's worst result since the European elections two years ago), M5S up 0.6 to 12.9%, Forza Italia at 8% (down 0.2), and the League at 6.7% (down 0.3). Futuro Nazionale is lower at 4.4% (up 0.4) in this aggregate, leaving a gap of 2.3 points between it and the League rather than the dead heat captured by SWG.

Coalition arithmetic

According to the Supermedia, the centre-left campo largo holds a narrow lead of 44.7% over the combined centre-right coalition, which is just 0.5 points behind. Fratelli d'Italia is still the dominant force, but the shifting currents inside the right – especially the cannibalisation of the League's vote by Futuro Nazionale – are compressing the government's advantage. Both surveys suggest that the right is losing votes faster than the left is gaining them, with undecided voters remaining a large bloc (27% in the SWG poll, down 1 point from the previous week).