Italy: Vannacci's party reaches 6% and overtakes the League, making an alliance with Meloni's right-wing bloc 'obligatory'

Shifting balance on the right

Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) saw its support slip 0.6 percentage points to 27%, while Forza Italia held steady at 8.3%. The League remained at 5.6%, its lowest level in years. Against this backdrop, Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale gained 1.2 points in a month to reach 6%, overtaking the League. Nando Pagnoncelli, director of Ipsos, called the crossover a first for his institute's polling series.

For the first time in our polls, Vannacci has overtaken Salvini.

Pagnoncelli added that Vannacci's rise is fuelled by voters deserting both the League and Fratelli d'Italia, with a small contribution from former abstentionists. The Supermedia survey by YouTrend also placed the League at a record low of 6.2%, while Futuro Nazionale climbed to 5.3%, confirming the same gravitational shift.

Opposition in paralysis

On the centre-left, the picture was equally static. The Democratic Party (PD) held at 20.1%, its lowest monthly reading in a year. The Five Star Movement (M5S) inched down to 14.3% from 14.5%. The Greens-Left alliance (AVS) lost 0.6 points, settling at 6.2%. Smaller centrist forces (Azione, Italia Viva and +Europa) remained largely unchanged at 3%, 2% and 1.9% respectively, with only +Europa posting a modest 0.4‑point uptick. This inertia leaves the broad progressive camp ahead of the traditional centre-right in a head-to-head scenario, but analysts caution that vote transfers are never guaranteed when moving from party polls to a coalition ballot.

Coalition arithmetic and the Vannacci factor

Summing the three governing parties yields 41.7% of voting intentions, while a hypothetical centre-left alliance (including PD, M5S, AVS, Italia Viva and +Europa) would reach 44.5%. If the centre-right were to incorporate Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale, the coalition would climb to 47.7%. Pagnoncelli stressed the strategic implication even while noting the uncertainty of voter behaviour inside a formal alliance.

It is evident that the current centre-right seems forced into an alliance with Vannacci, which would bring it to 47.7%.

In this configuration, Meloni's bloc would regain a clear lead over the centre-left, making the partnership with the former general appear practically unavoidable ahead of the next election cycle. The Corriere della Sera report characterised the alliance as "obligatory," especially in light of an incoming electoral law.

Meloni's bounce and the Trump effect

The poll captured a modest personal boost for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose approval rating rose from 42% to 44%. Government satisfaction increased from 40% to 42%. Several commentators linked the improvement to Meloni's combative response to public attacks by U.S. President Donald Trump, which dominated headlines in recent weeks.

The clash with Trump played some role in the rebound.

Among the leaders, Giuseppe Conte remained the most appreciated at 48%, ahead of Antonio Tajani at 46% and Elly Schlein at 45%. Vannacci continued to gain ground, reaching 44% and drawing level with Meloni herself.