US and Iran trade strikes over Strait of Hormuz as fragile ceasefire teeters

Escalation over the Strait

A Panama-flagged tanker, the M/T Kiku, was struck by an Iranian one-way attack drone early on Saturday as it transited the Strait of Hormuz carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude. The attack followed a similar incident on Thursday, when an Iranian drone hit the merchant vessel M/V Ever Lovely off the coast of Oman. In response to the Thursday attack, the U.S. military launched strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations on Friday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported on Saturday that a tanker was damaged by an "unidentified projectile" in the strait, with the crew safe. The Joint Maritime Information Center raised the security threat level to "substantial", citing strikes on merchant ships and mines in the area.

Ceasefire on the brink

The exchanges are the most severe since Iran and the United States signed an interim memorandum of understanding on June 15, which aimed to end a four-month conflict and guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait had been effectively closed to shipping since February 28, when Iran began threatening and attacking vessels after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtschi said during a visit to Baghdad that the waterway "will be fully placed under Iran's administration within the next 30 days" and that responsibility for it lies solely with Tehran.

Any interference or the attempt to create parallel structures would complicate the situation further. The incidents and confrontations of the past two nights in the Strait of Hormuz confirm this assessment.

Trump's threat and US justification

U.S. Central Command said its forces struck Iranian military surveillance, communications, air defence sites, drone storage and mine-laying facilities on Saturday, calling the operation "in direct response to continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping."

Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to when its forces launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning.

President Donald Trump accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire and escalated his rhetoric on his Truth Social platform.

There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. Should that happen, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!

Iranian retaliation and regional fallout

Shortly after the U.S. strikes, Iran said it launched attacks on American interests. A U.S. official, speaking anonymously, said two one-way attack drones approached the U.S. Navy base in Bahrain; one was shot down, while the other landed harmlessly in a remote area. On Sunday, the governments of Bahrain and Kuwait both confirmed they were targeted again. The Kuwaiti army said it intercepted two ballistic missiles in its airspace with "no material damage or human injuries." Iran's state television reported explosions in Sirik, southern Iran.

Congressional pushback

The escalation came just days after Congress passed a war powers resolution demanding President Trump either halt the military campaign against Iran or seek congressional approval. The Senate approved the measure 50-48 on Tuesday, while the House passed it on June 3 by a vote of 215 to 208. Democratic Representative Ro Khanna called the latest U.S. strikes "a blatant violation" and threatened to take the president to court. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Trump had delivered "maximum confusion, maximum chaos, maximum cost to the American people with his disastrous war."