Ukraine plans strikes on Russian oil refineries after uncovering Kremlin winter attack doctrine

Secret Kremlin documents revealed

Ukrainian military intelligence has obtained classified Russian government documents outlining plans to expand aerial strikes against civilian infrastructure ahead of winter, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with Reuters on 3 October 2026. The operational doctrine, approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin, authorizes attacks on hospitals, schools, roads, logistics networks, and energy installations. Zelenskyy stated that the Kremlin aims to create unlivable conditions and force residents to evacuate Kyiv and other urban centres. The Ukrainian leader attributed this tactical change to Moscow's attempt to project strength while Russian armed forces suffer personnel casualties and lose territory along key sectors of the front line.

We have seen the documents and we know that they allow them to attack infrastructure, logistics, roads, schools, hospitals, to put pressure on people to leave the capital and different cities. That is the goal of the operation.

Retaliation focused on oil refineries

Ukraine plans to intensify long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian oil refineries in direct response to the expanded bombardment strategy. Zelenskyy stated that hitting refining capacity targets the primary financial revenue stream funding the Russian military campaign. He emphasized that Ukrainian forces will restrict retaliatory actions strictly to energy infrastructure and will not target Russian civilian sites. The Kremlin has not directly addressed the intelligence findings but published an advisory urging foreign citizens to leave Kyiv. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Russian forces will maintain systematic strikes against designated targets as retaliation for Ukrainian operations inside Russian territory during recent months. Both governments continue to deny deliberately targeting civilians.

We have to respond in any way possible. To their attacks on our energy, we have to respond to their energy. First of all, oil refineries: what brings them money for this war. But we will not respond, of course, exactly like them, to any civilian targets.

Operation Vivaldi and diplomatic pressure

On the eastern front, Ukrainian forces have recaptured roughly 140 square kilometres of territory in the Donbas in recent weeks during an ongoing counteroffensive code-named Vivaldi. The area holds strategic weight as Moscow had previously demanded complete control over the Donbas as a precondition for any negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, the administration of US President Donald Trump has continued diplomatic efforts to revive negotiations to resolve the war, which began with the Russian invasion in February 2022. Trump previously urged Kyiv last month to cease targeting Russian oil installations due to concerns over rising global diesel prices. Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has received no communication from Moscow indicating interest in peace discussions or a mutual halt to strikes on energy infrastructure.

Infrastructure strikes on Kyiv and European hybrid threats

Recent Russian barrages against Kyiv have employed drones and missiles to hit electricity infrastructure, telecommunications networks, and, for the first time, bridges across the Dnipro river connecting the eastern and western districts of the capital. Zelenskyy also warned that recent Russian drone incursions into European airspace and related hybrid operations represent a deliberate campaign to intimidate European populations and erode Western backing for Ukraine. He noted that several European leaders have begun to recognize the objective behind these hybrid actions.