Trump predicts Iran war will end after November midterms as oil tops $100

Midterm prediction at Joint Base Andrews

Speaking to journalists at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on 9 September 2026, US President Donald Trump stated that the military campaign against Iran would end immediately following the US midterm elections scheduled for 3 November 2026. Trump, aged 80, made the remarks on the tarmac before boarding a Qatari-gifted Air Force One aircraft bound for Dallas, Texas, where the Republican Party was holding its national midterm convention. His departure was delayed when an emergency slide deployed unexpectedly on the plane, requiring safety inspections prior to takeoff. Trump asserted that Iranian leaders are prolonging the conflict deliberately in an effort to influence American voters and alter the political composition of the United States Congress.

I think war is going to end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon.

Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

The war entered its seventh month without a clear resolution, having commenced on 28 February 2026 when the United States and Israel launched strikes citing an imminent threat from Iran's nuclear program. Direct clashes between naval forces intensified on 9 September 2026, when Iranian authorities announced attacks on 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. That retaliatory action followed the sinking of five Iranian oil tankers by the United States military. The maritime chokepoint historically carried approximately 20% of the world's petroleum supplies before military threats disrupted commercial shipping routes across the Middle East.

The renewed fighting in the Persian Gulf drove benchmark Brent crude oil futures above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2026.

Economic impact and domestic political pressure

Energy disruptions have fed rising domestic inflation and higher consumer costs across the United States, where retail gasoline prices have climbed above $4 per gallon, or 3.43 euros for 3.8 liters. Trump asserted that fuel costs would decrease substantially once hostilities conclude, suggesting prices could fall below $2 per gallon after the November vote. The economic strain coincides with increased political vulnerability for the Republican Party, which holds narrow majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. An NBC News survey recorded that 31% of American adults approve of the administration's management of the war, while overall presidential approval dropped to a record low.

Strategic aims and diplomatic impasse

Trump maintained that Tehran's overarching objective is the development of a nuclear weapon, warning that an armed Iran would threaten international security. Iran has consistently stated that its uranium enrichment activities are strictly for civilian energy purposes, and United States intelligence assessments have previously expressed doubt that weaponization had begun despite concerns over enrichment levels. Nuclear negotiations had been underway when the conflict began in February 2026, following Trump's earlier decision to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

All they want is a nuclear weapon, and if they had a nuclear weapon, the whole world is in deep trouble.

Trump indicated that restarting comprehensive nuclear negotiations was not an active priority for his administration, stating that his strategic objectives extend beyond a narrow atomic agreement. Although Trump previously predicted the conflict would last only several weeks and referred to it as small potatoes, Vice President JD Vance refrained from setting a definitive endpoint, noting that military developments depend on decisions made in Tehran.