Trump declares 'war with Iran is over' but Tehran, markets and Netanyahu push back

A presidential proclamation

Donald Trump declared on Thursday evening that the United States had “ended the war with Iran today,” telling a tele-rally for Georgia lieutenant governor Burt Jones that Tehran had agreed never to acquire a nuclear weapon. Hours earlier, he had posted on Truth Social that he was cancelling planned strikes and bombings against Iran because talks had reached the highest level of the Iranian leadership and the final points of an agreement had been approved.

I don't know if you heard it, but we ended the war with Iran today. They agreed not to have a nuclear weapon, which we insisted on; that was the whole purpose. That was 95 percent of the issue.

Tehran's swift rejection

The Iranian side flatly contradicted the American account within hours. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the state news agency IRNA that reports of a finalised deal were “mere speculation” and stressed that “nothing has been finalised.” The Fars news agency, which is linked to the Iranian establishment, reported that Tehran had not approved any draft memorandum of understanding with Washington and that Trump had presented no new element, effectively returning to previous US positions. The semi-official Tasnim agency, close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, urged that Trump's statements not be taken at face value unless Iran makes official announcements.

Until any potential agreement is officially announced by Iran, Trump's claims should be treated with the same caution as his previous assertions.

Netanyahu caught off guard

The Israeli government was equally dismissive. An Israeli source told CNN that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “surprised” by Trump's Truth Social post, which appeared while Netanyahu was chairing an emergency security meeting on Iran. The source said Israel had no knowledge of any impending deal nor of any approval, contradicting Trump's claim that all parties, including Israel, had endorsed the terms. Netanyahu's office later confirmed communication with Trump but clarified that Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding being shaped.

104 days of on-again, off-again diplomacy

The latest declaration marks the 104th day of the crisis and follows a pattern of premature victory announcements. Analysts cited by the BBC note that if the mixed messages are a pressure tactic, it has not yet yielded results. Trump has repeatedly claimed since April that a deal is imminent: on 20 April he said an agreement would come “relatively quickly,” on 6 May he predicted the war would end soon and mentioned a 14-point memorandum, and on 23 May he said the deal was “largely negotiated.” This time, however, he went further by naming a possible signing venue (somewhere in Europe) and time frame (as early as this weekend), with Vice President JD Vance attending in his place.

Oil markets react to the uncertainty

Crude prices fell sharply on Friday morning as traders priced in the possibility of a genuine diplomatic breakthrough. US West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 1.65% to $86.26 per barrel, while Brent for August lost 1.55% to $88.98. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets point out that oil's resilience during the conflict has been underpinned by diplomatic efforts, alternative cargo routes around the Strait of Hormuz, and a marked decline in Chinese crude imports. Citi similarly highlights the drop in Chinese imports since the crisis began as a factor capping upside pressure. Trump stated that the US naval blockade would remain in full force until the deal is finalised and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen fully once it is signed, removing one of the biggest threats to global energy markets.

Iran's six demands and frozen billions

Based on indications gathered by the BBC, Iran's core negotiating demands include guarantees of no further US attacks, withdrawal of American forces from areas near Iran, an end to the US naval blockade of southern ports, lifting of all US sanctions, a cessation of hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad. Tehran is estimated to hold more than $24 billion in blocked assets in foreign banks. Unlocking those funds, together with sanctions relief, would provide significant economic breathing room, but Iranian officials insist they will not compromise on their red lines and that the US repeatedly changed its positions during the talks.

What comes next

Despite the gap between Trump's optimism and Iranian caution, the White House appears to be betting that momentum is shifting. Trump's claim to have reached the supreme Iranian leadership directly, his naming of Qatar and Pakistan as active mediators, and the explicit cancellation of military strikes all suggest a more concrete phase than previous episodes of brinkmanship. Yet the absence of any confirmation from Tehran, the evident surprise in Jerusalem, and the continuing risk of renewed escalation through reciprocal retaliation keep the outcome poised between breakthrough and a return to hostilities.