Trump-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire falters; Iran halts US talks, oil prices swing

Ceasefire announced, but fighting continues

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that Israeli and Hezbollah leaders had agreed to halt fighting in Lebanon and that no Israeli troops would move toward Beirut. Hours later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an order to attack the Dahije district, a Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut, triggering a sharp Iranian response. Trump then intervened with both sides, securing an apparent pause. Yet on Tuesday Israeli forces struck about 20 sites in southern Lebanon, the AFP reported, while Hezbollah claimed several attacks on Israeli occupying troops in the south. Lebanon’s health ministry said 35 people were killed since Monday, including children. Since the war began on March 2, 3,468 people have died and over one million have been displaced.

I had a very fruitful conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and there will be no troops heading to Beirut, and those that are on their way have already been turned back.

Netanyahu said Israel will “attack terrorist targets in Beirut” if Hezbollah continues its attacks, and Defense Minister Israel Kac added that the United States approved this principle. Hezbollah senior official Mahmud Komati rejected any partial ceasefire, warning that “any aggression by the Zionist enemy will bring an even stronger reaction.” According to the Axios website, Trump furiously berated Netanyahu during their call, swearing and accusing him of damaging Israel’s international standing.

Iran freezes talks with Washington

On Tuesday, the semi-official Iranian agency Fars reported that the exchange of diplomatic correspondence with the US was severed several days ago because of Israel’s Lebanon offensive. State television warned that unless Israel halts its attacks, the US-Iran truce is likely to collapse. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to open “new fronts” against Israel. Earlier, Trump said on CNBC that he “didn’t care” if negotiations ended, calling them “very boring,” but later wrote on his Truth Social platform that talks continue “uninterrupted.” He told ABC News a deal could be reached within a week.

It’s going well. (…) There was a little problem today, but I quickly got it under control, as you probably saw earlier.

Tehran has made any agreement conditional on a ceasefire on the Lebanese front. Together with its allies, Iran has threatened to close both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab strait, chokepoints for global oil shipments.

Oil market swings

Oil prices posted their biggest daily gain in a month on Monday, with Brent crude rising 4.2 percent to near $94 a barrel after Iran’s halt of talks. Prices eased on Tuesday after Trump’s reassurances: Brent stood at $94.18, down 0.84 percent, and WTI at $91.29. Market analyst Linh Tran from XS.com said prices would remain elevated and volatile until flows through Hormuz normalize.

As long as flows through Hormuz do not return to normal and the US-Iran negotiation process remains uncertain, oil prices will likely stay elevated and be volatile.

Peace talks begin in Washington

US-sponsored peace talks started in Washington on Tuesday with Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad leading the delegations. Neither side issued an immediate statement. A formal ceasefire in Lebanon has been in place since April 16, but both sides accuse each other of daily violations. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, operates beyond the Beirut government’s control and joined the war on Tehran’s side after the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

Key events timeline

The sequence of escalation since February has been marked by overlapping truces, renewed fighting, and diplomatic pushes. The timeline below captures the main turns.