Swiss Federal Audit Office finds persistent flaws in voting booklet forecasts, calls for reform

The Swiss Federal Audit Office (EFK) has found significant deficiencies in the forecasts published in federal voting booklets and parliamentary messages. In a report commissioned by the government itself, the watchdog concluded that vital information is often omitted, uncertainties are not disclosed, and the focus is overwhelmingly on financial costs while social or environmental effects are neglected.

A history of high-profile errors

The audit was prompted by a series of embarrassing miscalculations. The most famous was the 2016 vote to abolish the marriage penalty, where the official booklet estimated 80,000 affected dual-income couples; the real figure was 450,000. The Federal Court annulled the result (the only time in Swiss history a national referendum has been overturned). Other examples stretch back to 2002, when immigration after the introduction of free movement of persons massively exceeded forecasts, and to the 2008 corporate tax reform II, whose revenue shortfall was badly underestimated. More recently, the 2022 vote on raising women's retirement age contained an AHV deficit miscalculation of around CHF 2 billion. In the 2022 mass animal farming initiative, the booklet overstated annual renovation costs by ignoring a 25-year transition period, while completely omitting the estimated biodiversity benefit of CHF 30 to 140 million. The 2024 motorway expansion booklet omitted CHF 1.2 billion in inflation and VAT from the cost estimate.

Narrow focus and missing uncertainties

The EFK examined 190 parliamentary messages and voting booklets since 2020, with seven case studies scrutinised in depth. It found that 59 percent of parliamentary messages and 30 percent of voting explanations included financial forecasts, while environmental impacts appeared in less than 5 percent of all documents. "On a federal level, there are no binding requirements to involve data analysis experts in the preparation of [forecasts]," the EFK stated. Moreover, uncertainties inherent in economic projections are rarely flagged, leaving voters unable to judge how much weight to give the numbers.

Political interference risk

The EFK also highlighted a conflict of interest. The departmental general secretariats that draft voting explanations have political objectives and thus a motive to present outcomes favourable to their department. "They pursue political goals and therefore have an interest in the effects aligning with their department's stance. On the other hand, the effects must be presented objectively and comprehensibly," the audit office said.

Reforms proposed, but no external review

The EFK recommended requiring data specialists for important proposals, introducing mandatory four-eye checks, improving training, and making underlying data and models public. It urged federal offices to explain assumptions and uncertainties clearly. The government welcomed the report's thrust but pushed back on the suggestion of an external review body, citing tight federal finances.

The response leaves open how quickly (and credibly) Switzerland's direct democracy will shore up the accuracy of the information on which millions of voters depend.