Swiss voters reject population cap at 10 million, projections show — free movement with EU preserved
Early referendum projections indicate that Switzerland has voted against the 'No to 10 million Switzerland' initiative, which would have forced an end to the free movement accord with the European Union.
Vote outcome
A majority of Swiss voters rejected the proposal to cap the country's resident population at 10 million, according to projections by national broadcaster SRF and pollster gfs.bern published immediately after polls closed on Sunday. The figures showed roughly 55% voting against and 45% in favour of the measure, a result that matched the final pre-vote survey from GFS Bern.
- Against
- 55 %
- For
- 45 %
The initiative was put forward by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), the largest party in parliament, which has long campaigned on an anti-immigration platform.
What the initiative proposed
The 'No to 10 million Switzerland' text, formally championed by the UDC (the French name of the SVP), stipulated that the permanent resident population must not exceed 10 million before 2050. If the threshold were breached for two consecutive years, Switzerland would be required to terminate its bilateral agreement with the EU on the free movement of persons.
The proposal emerged as Switzerland's population reached 9.1 million, up from 7.3 million in 2002. Foreign nationals now make up nearly 28% of residents, and official projections forecast the 10-million mark being hit by the early 2040s. The SVP blamed immigration for worsening housing shortages, pushing up rents, overloading transport infrastructure and straining the health system.
- 2002
- 7.3 million
- 2026
- 9.1 million
- ~2040 (projected)
- 10 million
Economic and EU concerns
The prospect of a 'yes' vote had alarmed Swiss business leaders because over half of all Swiss exports go to the EU, and market access depends on upholding the free movement of people. The referendum was compared by some commentators to the UK's 2016 Brexit vote, with opponents warning of economic chaos if the accord were scrapped.
Patrick Leisibach, a migration expert at think tank Avenir Suisse, said the personal welfare dimension had weighed on voters.
They wonder 'who is going to serve me at the restaurant?' and 'who is going to care for me when I get old?' It's more about personal welfare which made people reject this initiative.
Opponents also cited the bruising experience of 2025, when President Donald Trump imposed the highest US tariffs in Europe on Swiss goods, arguing that a new clash with Brussels would further isolate the country.
Campaign and political context
The SVP campaign had featured stark posters, claiming that only 10% of incomers were skilled workers and that asylum seekers posed a higher risk of violent crime. Still, the economic arguments and fears of losing essential workers in tourism, hospitals and care homes appeared to sway a narrow majority.
The vote came amid a broader European backdrop of growing support for immigration-curbing policies, but the Swiss result showed that direct democracy can sometimes temper such impulses when the economic costs are made tangible.
Civil service reform also on the ballot
On the same day, voters appeared set to approve a government-backed plan to tighten access to the civil service, making it harder to switch from military conscription to alternative service. The reform was intended to preserve the primacy of military service; opponents, including left-wing groups, warned it would weaken civil protection and care services without genuinely strengthening the army.
