Italy braces for fourth heatwave after Sunday storms; temperatures to reach 40°C, south near 45°C
Thunderstorms with hail and strong winds hit central-northern Italy on Sunday 26 July, while from Wednesday the African anticyclone returns, driving the fourth intense heatwave of summer 2026 with peaks of 40°C in the north and up to 45°C in the south.
Sunday storms
A rapid thunderstorm front is crossing central-northern Italy on Sunday 26 July, bringing intense precipitation, hail, and strong wind gusts. The regions most at risk are Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna, Liguria di Levante, upper Tuscany, and Lazio, with a later extension southward into Campania. The last rains are expected on Monday 27 July in the centre-south before conditions change drastically.
Why the storms are so violent
Mattia Gussoni, meteorologist at iLMeteo.it, describes the mechanism that is driving the day's severe weather.
The unstable currents will interact directly with the very warm and humid air masses stationary over the Mediterranean after weeks with temperatures always above climatic averages. Our seas will provide the energy needed to trigger violent phenomena. Accumulating heat during the hot weeks, the sea surface evaporates and releases a huge amount of water vapour and latent heat into the air: when the cool, unstable north-European currents hit this reservoir of warm, humid air, very strong updrafts develop that fuel extremely intense thunderstorms.
The final showers in the centre-south on Monday will mark the transition to a radically different weather pattern.
Fourth heatwave arrives Wednesday
From Wednesday 29 July, a vast subtropical high-pressure field of North African origin will push into the heart of Europe, guaranteeing extreme atmospheric stability and almost uninterrupted sunshine across Italy. Gussoni outlines the expected impact.
The advancement of a vast subtropical high-pressure field from North Africa will push into the heart of Europe. Here comes the fourth intense heatwave of the season, set to affect not only Italy but much of west-central Europe. This anticyclonic pattern will guarantee extreme atmospheric stability with sunshine dominating almost all regions and, at the same time, a clear and general rise in temperatures, with values returning to peaks of 38-40°C in many central-northern cities.
According to the projections, Milan and Rome are expected to reach 39°C, while southern Italy could again approach 45°C. Some models indicate the heatwave may persist until around 10 August.
- Milan
- 39 °C
- Rome
- 39 °C
- Southern Italy
- 45 °C
The sequence of events
- Thunderstorms with hail and strong winds hit central-northern Italy.
- Last rains in centre-south; weather begins to stabilise.
- African anticyclone arrives, starting fourth heatwave with clear skies.
- Possible end of the heatwave, according to some models.
Climate change link
Gussoni frames the rapid swing from storms to extreme heat as a manifestation of a broader trend.
These are the two faces of ongoing climate change: on one hand we see ever greater frequency and duration of heatwaves (with summer 2026 set to pass into history as one of the hottest ever), on the other the risk of extreme weather events is growing exponentially. Ever higher temperatures put into play greater potential energy, accumulating enormous amounts of humidity in the lower layers of the atmosphere, ready to turn into violent phenomena as recent news unfortunately continues to teach us.
