Keir Starmer expected to set resignation timeline on Monday after Andy Burnham’s by-election win

The Makerfield trigger

Keir Starmer’s hold on the premiership, under threat for months, collapsed on Friday when Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election in Greater Manchester and returned to Westminster. The victory gives Burnham a parliamentary seat and the formal ability to launch a leadership challenge. Within hours, Starmer had begun a round of meetings with cabinet ministers, advisers, donors and trade union leaders.

According to the Observer, which did not name its sources, the prime minister concluded over the weekend that his position is no longer viable. He is spending Saturday and Sunday at Chequers, the official country residence, talking with his wife Victoria before taking a final decision. Senior Labour figures expect a “clear statement” on his future as early as Monday.

Numbers draining away

A Labour MP once considered a loyalist told The Telegraph that Starmer’s support inside the parliamentary party had shrunk to “friends and relatives.” The MP added that blocking Burnham’s path to Downing Street was “like trying to fight gravity.” Another former backer described Starmer as a “finished” politician, arguing that Burnham could take over without a contest. Supporters of Burnham claim he has the backing of almost 300 MPs.

He has almost nobody left. Literally, only people whose relatives work in Downing Street or Keir’s personal friends.

A political ally told The Sun that there is “maybe a 25% chance he keeps fighting.” More than half of the cabinet are said to have told Starmer he must set out an exit plan. A senior government figure told The Telegraph the prime minister has begun to realise that “the game is up” and is now thinking about how to “secure his political legacy.”

Downing Street pushes back

Government sources insist Starmer still stands by the statement he made on Friday, when he pledged to contest any leadership challenge and urged his party not to tear itself apart with infighting. A source said he remains “focused on driving forward the government’s work” and pointed to earlier remarks in that spirit.

He stays focused on his government work.

Acceptance and an orderly exit

Despite the official line, multiple Labour figures say Starmer has come to terms with the inevitable. A close friend told in.gr that the prime minister sees only one option left, calling it a “duty to serve country and party.” The friend said Starmer

I think he understands the reality. Stopping the ‘chaos’ — as he rightly put it — is no longer possible while he stays, so only one option remains. I believe he has concluded that it is the choice imposed by duty, to serve the country and the party.

A senior Labour official said the prime minister appears to “have come to terms with” his resignation, facing the “brutal reality that the support simply isn’t there.” Another Labour figure quoted Boris Johnson: “When the herd moves, it moves.” A government minister said Starmer is “calmly assessing things” and wants to spend quality time with his most important adviser, his wife.

A slow, orderly departure is being discussed. A Labour member close to the prime minister said he will not create a vacuum but will “organise a deliberately gradual exit with order, as a matter of duty and dignity.”