Spain's school-age population to drop 13.7% by 2041 as fertility hits record low

Spain's fertility hits historic low

Spain's fertility rate fell to 1.10 children per woman in 2024, the second lowest in the EU after Malta (1.01), according to Eurostat and INE data. The EU average was 1.34, with all member states below the 2.1 replacement level. France led with 1.61, while Portugal recorded 1.39. In 2024, Spain registered 318,005 births, the lowest in INE's historical series, though 2025 saw a slight uptick to 321,164 (up 1%), the first annual increase in a decade. The natural population balance was negative by 117,000, with growth now entirely dependent on immigration.

School-age population to shrink by 1.3 million

A report by the BBVA Foundation and the Valencian Institute of Economic Research (Ivie) projects that the population aged 6 to 24 will fall 13.7% between 2026 and 2041, a loss of 1.32 million potential students. The decline is not uniform: primary education will see a 14.5% drop until 2035 before stabilising, while compulsory secondary (ESO) will contract 20.3% and post-compulsory secondary 23.7%. Higher education will shrink more moderately (8.7%), with the downturn starting after 2032.

Regional disparities demand tailored responses

The impact varies sharply by region. Extremadura faces a 23.1% drop in school-age population, Cantabria 22.8%, and Galicia 19.4%. In contrast, the Valencian Community will lose only 5%, the Balearics 8.6%, and Murcia 10%. The report stresses that blanket national policies will not suffice; planning must account for local demographic trajectories.

Teacher retirements open a window for restructuring

The teaching workforce is ageing rapidly. In public universities, the average age is 49.5 years, with 18.7% aged 60 or over. In secondary education, 35% of teachers are over 50. The report sees this wave of retirements as a chance to reallocate human resources rather than automatically replacing every post.

The system will have to deal with the retirement of many teachers and see how to respond. It's an opportunity, a moment of flexibility. The supply of positions and demand must adjust, keep pace. We'll have to ask whether it's necessary to replace them or not.

Spending pressures and the case for personalised education

Public spending per student varies widely: €11,347 for university, €5,806 for secondary and vocational training, and €4,720 for infant and primary. The report argues that the demographic decline could ease resource pressure but warns that simply cutting budgets would be a mistake. Instead, it calls for reinvesting savings into more personalised education, smaller class sizes, and targeted support where enrolment falls most.