Spain Declassifies Intelligence Showing Warnings Sent to Morocco Ahead of Ceuta Surge

Declassified intelligence warnings

The Spanish government declassified 40 intelligence files on 9 September 2026, covering reports and communications between 1 July and 1 August. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez authorised the release following parliamentary debates over government handling of the border crisis in Ceuta. The files reveal that the National Intelligence Centre (CNI) issued an urgent alert on 29 July 2026 to the Ceuta government delegation, Guardia Civil intelligence unit UCE-3, and National Police immigration unit CENIF. CNI informed these agencies that online organizers were preparing incursions across the land fence and by swimming to coincide with Morocco's Throne Day on 30 July. Spanish intelligence also sent these tactical notices to Moroccan security services, specifically the domestic DGST and foreign DGED directorates.

Social media mobilization and border surge

The intelligence documents identified two online groups coordinating the border crossing, including a WhatsApp group named "Storming the Ceuta fence" with 160,000 members and a second channel with 22,000 followers. Internal Defense Ministry records indicated that a migration crisis had been developing near the enclave since 25 July, after CENIF logged nearly 1,000 sea crossings between 1 and 28 July (a marked increase over the previous year). On 30 and 31 July, between 70,000 and 80,000 people attempted to cross the border into the city of 84,000 residents, leaving at least 141 dead. While more than 90% of those who entered returned to Morocco within 72 hours, between 5,000 and 10,000 people remain in Ceuta, with many sheltering in a tent settlement on the local beach.

Moroccan conduct and official evaluations

A declassified report by the Armed Forces Intelligence Centre (CIFAS), timestamped at 13:00 on 30 July, stated that Moroccan border forces acted with passivity and negligence. An internal police report noted that Moroccan authorities did not deploy 1,000 additional soldiers and police officers recommended to secure the border perimeter during the holiday. Intelligence sources cited in Spanish media stated that Moroccan officials made an error in evaluating the threat level. Sánchez addressed lawmakers to reject claims that Rabat had deliberately engineered the influx to overwhelm Spanish forces.

I can assure you that no government institution, nor diplomatic service, nor the European Commission, nor any international organization has provided the Spanish government with solid evidence that Morocco planned or executed this incident.

Political reactions and emergency funding

Speaking in Brussels, Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares maintained that while CNI had monitored social media groups, the executive received no advance warning regarding the sheer scale of the crossing. Albares added that satellite monitoring assets operated by Frontex also failed to register border preparations.

I speak as Spain's foreign minister, within my responsibilities and based on what I experienced that day. I had no knowledge of any information of any kind that indicated the scale of this wave.

Conservative opposition politicians described the crossing as an invasion and accused the government of failing to act on earlier warnings. In Ceuta, Regional President Juan Jesús Vivas warned that local infrastructure remained under severe strain. To address the situation, the European Commission approved a 114.7 million euro financial assistance package to assist Spain with migrant accommodation, healthcare, and border surveillance.