SpaceX joins Nasdaq 100, analysts split between $10.5tn bull case and 90% crash warning
The rocket and satellite company entered the tech-heavy index on Tuesday, triggering an estimated $4.3 billion in passive fund buying and a wave of analyst coverage that ranged from a $10.5 trillion price target to a 90% crash probability.
Index inclusion triggers passive buying
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, just 15 days after its June 12 IPO at $135 per share. The inclusion, one of the fastest ever, follows Nasdaq rule changes that allow newly listed companies to enter major benchmarks more quickly. Index funds and ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100, which together hold over $587 billion in assets, must now buy the stock to match the index. J.P. Morgan estimated the move could draw $4.3 billion in passive inflows.
Wall Street rushes to cover
The end of the post-IPO quiet period for underwriters unleashed a flurry of analyst reports. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bernstein, RBC, and Stifel all initiated coverage with buy ratings or the equivalent. Morgan Stanley called SpaceX "AI's final frontier" and set a $300 price target. Goldman analysts said the company is well-positioned to scale across space, connectivity, and AI, each a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity over five years.
We see the company as well-positioned to scale its differentiated advantages across space, connectivity, and AI.
RBC pointed to the Starship rocket as the key driver.
The Starship is the flywheel that powers SpaceX's ambitions.
The $10.5 trillion bull case
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale opened coverage with an $800 price target, the highest on Wall Street and roughly 430% above Tuesday's price. Hitting that target would value SpaceX at about $10.5 trillion, double Nvidia's current market cap. Gesuale's thesis rests almost entirely on AI: he projects revenue will grow from $19 billion last year to $5.2 trillion by 2035, with AI contributing 94% of the total by then. He expects SpaceX to sell computing power, first from ground-based data centres and later from orbital servers.
- Raymond James
- 800 $
- Morgan Stanley
- 300 $
- Bernstein
- 239 $
- UBS
- 210 $
Skeptics warn of a bubble
Not everyone is convinced. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and a noted bubble-caller, told Morningstar that a SpaceX crash is 90% likely. He described parts of the AI pitch as "utterly inconceivable" and said the company's AI efforts looked third-rate next to OpenAI and Anthropic. Morningstar values SpaceX at about $780 billion, well below its $2.1 trillion market capitalisation, citing uncertainty around AI operations. The company lost nearly $6 billion last year.
Utterly inconceivable.
Market reaction
SpaceX shares slipped about 5% on Tuesday to near $151, even as index funds lined up to buy. The decline came despite the broadly bullish analyst notes and the passive inflow expectations. Gesuale himself flagged a risk: a run of launch failures could send the stock to $125, below the IPO price. The market now faces years of settling whether SpaceX is a rocket firm, an AI infrastructure play, or a bubble.
