Six months into Iran war, US and Israeli strikes yield stalemate as economic pressure intensifies

Operation Epic Fury and military stalemate

Six months after the United States and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, the military campaign has settled into a grinding stalemate. The joint operation began with coordinated strikes on Tehran, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, and armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi. According to data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, the United States and Israel carried out at least 3,580 attacks against Iranian targets. In response, Iran launched at least 2,053 attacks across the Gulf and the wider Middle East. Despite extensive damage inflicted on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, Tehran maintained its core command and retaliatory capabilities.

We did a lot of damage to Iran, but they have come out stronger than before.

Casualties and regional escalation

The war has generated substantial casualties across multiple countries since the opening strikes. Official figures from national health authorities confirm at least 4,350 people killed in Lebanon, 3,527 killed in Iran, and 28 killed in Gulf states. Iranian strikes have killed 60 Israelis and 18 US service members, with the Pentagon confirming 757 American troops wounded. In Lebanon, fighting intensified as Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel, triggering counter-strikes and Israeli ground maneuvers that previously placed one-fifth of Lebanese territory under Israeli control.

Hormuz transit collapse and sanctions pivot

Maritime commerce through the Persian Gulf collapsed shortly after fighting started, causing broad disruptions to global energy markets. Prior to 28 February, approximately 100 vessels passed daily through the Strait of Hormuz, more than half carrying oil and petrochemicals. After the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed on 2 March, daily transit fell to five vessels. A temporary diplomatic arrangement on 17 June lifted traffic to 20 vessels daily, but flows returned to five ships per day when the United States resumed its port blockade on 14 July. Facing operational limits and depleted munitions, the Trump administration has transitioned toward tighter sanctions, threatening the single greatest financial offensive ever against Iran.

Political strain and civilian exhaustion

In Washington, prolonged fighting has created political friction ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. A July poll cited by CNN indicated that 29 percent of motivated voters approved of Donald Trump's management of the war, compared to 53 percent in 2024. Reporting by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan noted that the administration initially expected the conflict to conclude within weeks.

He believed, as Jonathan and I reported in Regime Change, that this was going to be a quick war.

In Tehran, political authority remains centralized under a military structure following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not made a public appearance in six months. On 10 August, official decrees in his name established a restructured high command. Ordinary Iranians in cities like Tehran face severe economic hardship, rapid price increases, and anxiety over future strikes, leaving initial hopes for domestic political change replaced by daily survival.