Sikorski leads Tusk as preferred PM for Civic Coalition, poll finds; 58% expect coalition to lose power
25.2% of respondents in a SW Research survey picked Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski as a better prime minister for a future Civic Coalition government, ahead of incumbent Donald Tusk at 17.1%, while a separate IBRiS poll shows 58.3% believe the ruling coalition will not retain power after the next elections.
Sikorski edges ahead of Tusk
A head-to-head poll conducted by SW Research for "Rzeczpospolita" shows Radosław Sikorski with a clear advantage over Donald Tusk as the preferred prime ministerial candidate for Civic Coalition. When asked who would be the better head of government if KO formed a government after the 2027 parliamentary elections, 25.2% of respondents named Sikorski against 17.1% for Tusk. A further 32.6% said both would be equally good, and 25.1% had no opinion. The online survey was run on 21–22 July among 800 adult internet users.
Radosław Sikorski would be a better prime minister according to every third person from cities of 100,000 to 199,000 inhabitants and a slightly higher share among respondents aged up to 24 (36%).
- Radosław Sikorski
- 25.2 %
- Donald Tusk
- 17.1 %
- Both equally
- 32.6 %
- No opinion
- 25.1 %
Demographic divides
Support for Sikorski is strongest among the youngest voters and in medium-sized cities. The SW Research data show that 36% of those under 24 favour him, compared with the overall 25.2% average. By contrast, Donald Tusk’s best group are high earners. Adam Jastrzębski noted that respondents with net monthly incomes above 7,000 zł gave Tusk 24% and Sikorski 29%, making it the only income bracket where Tusk’s gap narrows to five percentage points.
The group that most frequently considers Donald Tusk the better candidate for future prime minister are respondents with net incomes above 7,000 zł (24% for Donald Tusk, 29% for Radosław Sikorski).
Coalition’s precarious position
A separate IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska reveals deep public scepticism about the ruling coalition’s chances of holding onto power. 58.3% of those polled think the 15 October Coalition will lose power after the next elections: 31.3% answered "definitely not" and 23% "rather not". Only 22.9% believe it will remain in government, leaving 18.8% undecided. Even among the coalition’s own supporters, confidence is limited: 64% say it can win, but 19% disagree and 17% are unsure. Among opposition voters, 95% expect the government to fall.
- Expect to lose power
- 58.3 %
- Expect to retain power
- 22.9 %
- No opinion
- 18.8 %
Context from other polls underscores the arithmetic challenge. Civic Coalition leads with roughly 30% support, but its partners are weak: New Left polls at 5–8%, the Polish People’s Party hovers around the 5% threshold, and Poland 2050 is below the 3% public-funding bar. Right-wing parties, by contrast, are polling strongly. Law and Justice stands at 23–25%, with a potential Mateusz Morawiecki breakaway adding roughly 6%, Confederation at 12–15%, and Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown at 7–10%. Most seat calculations suggest a parliamentary majority would require either a PiS-led right-wing bloc or a KO-Confederation pact.
Health scandals erode trust
Public mood is further soured by the government’s perceived handling of health-sector scandals. A United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska found that 77% of Poles think the government is managing these affairs badly, with 48% answering "definitely badly" and 29% "rather badly". Criticism crosses party lines: 47% of ruling-coalition supporters give negative marks, while only 45% offer positive assessments. Among opposition and undecided voters, the disapproval rate reaches 96%, and among Confederation voters it is 94%.
