Saudi Aramco cuts November crude prices for Asia by up to $5 a barrel

Price cuts across Asian grades

State-owned producer Saudi Aramco lowered its official selling prices for November crude deliveries to Asian buyers, diverging from trader expectations of a price increase. The state oil company set its flagship Arab Light grade at 5 dollars a barrel below the Oman/Dubai average, marking a monthly price reduction of 3 dollars. This represents the largest price discount on the grade since June 2020. Market surveys by Reuters had projected an increase of 3 dollars to track higher Middle Eastern benchmark prices, while some analysts anticipated increases up to 5 dollars. Aramco applied steeper reductions to its heavier crude varieties, lowering the official selling prices for both Arab Medium and Arab Heavy destined for Asia by 5 dollars a barrel.

Freight surges and rerouted shipments

The pricing reductions aim to protect market share in Asia as Persian Gulf producers compete for refiners while buyers face elevated transportation expenses. Daily charter rates for a Very Large Crude Carrier capable of hauling 2 million barrels from the Persian Gulf to China climbed to 1.2 million dollars, compared to approximately 80,000 dollars a year earlier. To ease logistical constraints and manage risks tied to regional conflict, Aramco expanded ship-to-ship crude transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz starting in September. Middle East crude deliveries through the Strait reached 98% of pre-conflict volumes according to JPMorgan estimates, though maritime security risks persist. Aramco requested Asian refiners specify their preferred pickup volumes between Gulf terminals, the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Mediterranean terminal of Sidi Kerir.

European hikes and global reserves

While cutting prices in Asia, Saudi Aramco raised November crude formulas for European buyers following the resumption of export operations at Yanbu. Official selling prices for all crude grades shipped to Northwest Europe increased by 3 dollars a barrel, with Mediterranean prices also seeing upward adjustments. Pricing for United States customers remained unchanged. In international policy, the G7 and International Energy Agency coordinated reserve management, with the IEA confirming that approximately 325 million barrels of crude had been released since March 2026, out of 400 million barrels pledged. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a virtual G7 session on 2 October where leaders agreed on releasing 100 million barrels of diesel and other refined fuels.

Regional security and market response

Oil benchmarks retreated following the pricing announcement, with West Texas Intermediate trading down 0.91% at 90.28 dollars a barrel on NYMEX and Brent falling 0.38% to 101.86 dollars on ICE. Price declines took place alongside renewed security incidents in the Arabian Peninsula. Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the eastern oil region of Khurais on 4 October, describing the strikes as retaliation for government military operations in Yemen. June Goh, senior fuel market analyst at Sparta Commodities SA, noted the persistent operational exposure across regional energy nodes.

Pipelines, refineries and oil loading infrastructure remain vulnerable to attacks from the Houthis. This could make it difficult for Saudi Arabia to maintain high oil production to supply the market via the Red Sea route.

On 4 October, the OPEC+ alliance resolved to maintain its existing crude production targets for November, with delegates projecting no further quota revisions until 2027.