Turkey seeks to sell Russian S-400s to Gulf state, opening door for F-35 return and sanctions relief

A Gulf destination for the S-400

Turkish media reports claim Ankara has finalised a deal to sell its Russian S-400 missile systems to a Gulf state, a move designed to clear the biggest hurdle to rejoining the F-35 joint strike fighter programme. The pro-government Hurriyet daily, citing columnist Abdulkadir Selvi, wrote that the last technical details were resolved late on Thursday and an official announcement was expected on Friday. The announcement, however, was called off without explanation, Middle East Eye reported, citing Russian and Turkish sources.

The most likely buyer remains unclear. Initial reports pointed to Qatar, where Turkey maintains a military base and enjoys close ties, but subsequent reporting by Middle East Eye indicated that negotiations now involve the United Arab Emirates. Russia, which must approve any transfer under the original end-user agreement, is reportedly receptive to a sale to the UAE, though talks are not yet concluded.

I can say one thing here: this is an extremely sensitive issue. However, we have been in contact with the Turkish side on this matter and will continue to maintain contact with them on this issue.

The sanctions and legal maze

Turkey was ejected from the F-35 programme and hit with CAATSA sanctions in 2019 after taking delivery of the S-400. The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) explicitly forbids the transfer of F-35s to Turkey as long as it possesses the Russian systems. To regain access, Turkey must either dismantle or export the S-400, and then secure both a presidential waiver of CAATSA and a congressional override of the NDAA provision.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan voiced optimism after the NATO summit in Ankara, where US President Donald Trump spoke warmly of his relationship with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Fidan said that once the political will exists at the leadership level, progress on CAATSA and the F-35s could follow. He acknowledged, however, that legislative barriers remain.

Our expectation is exactly what Mr. Trump expressed. From the very first moment we have argued that sanctions should not be imposed between allies under any circumstances.

The road to re-entry

Earlier proposals to render the S-400 inoperable by removing key components and storing them under US supervision were deemed insufficient as a permanent fix. More recent talks, involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Fidan, shifted toward an outright sale to a third country. Rubio and Fidan reportedly excluded dismantlement or relocation to a US base during their consultations.

Before the sale can clear the path for F-35 delivery, several steps are required: a letter from President Trump notifying Congress of the transfer, the formal lifting of CAATSA sanctions, and approval from the Pentagon and relevant US authorities. Turkish media note that Ankara would then seek delivery of the six F-35s it had already paid for before its expulsion in 2019. Even so, analysts caution that the S-400 is not the only obstacle; technical and industrial terms for re-entry into the programme remain to be negotiated.

What happens next

The timeline of the S-400 saga stretches across three administrations. After a warm encounter at the NATO summit, Erdogan was non-committal when asked about the future of the systems, saying only "keep watching us." That ambiguity leaves the door open to a deal, but no final paperwork has been signed. Meanwhile, Moscow is engaged and not opposed, but is treating the matter with extreme delicacy.