Trump's Russian diesel deal faces backlash from the Dutch government and US senators

What the agreement contains

On 9 October Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Russia would supply diesel to the United States. According to his post, Russia would immediately deliver more than 300,000 tonnes, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November, then one million tonnes and three million more "within a short time". In return, American sanctions on Russian fuel would be lifted. On Monday, 12 October, Trump defended the deal in Washington, saying it would help American farmers and bring down high fuel prices. Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Nowak said on state television that Russia could lift diesel exports back to the pre-crisis level of more than three million tonnes a month.

Why diesel stays expensive

The International Energy Agency expects global diesel stocks to stay tight well into next year. Its figures show supply fell by 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter, as the war in Iran restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Russia cut output after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. Kpler counts about 13.5 million barrels of crude oil passing through Hormuz each day, but only about 677,000 barrels of diesel, against more than 3.6 million before the conflict. In the United States, diesel prices have risen about 60% over the past twelve months to roughly $6.30 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Analysts see little effect on prices

Samina Sultan of the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne blames the high prices mainly on the wars and disrupted shipping routes rather than on a shortage of barrels.

Given the volumes involved, any effect on the world market price will be rather small, if there is one at all.

Claudia Kemfert of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin noted that the announced 300,000 tonnes equal about 14 hours of US consumption. She added that existing cargoes could simply be redirected, which would not be a lasting price cut. Sultan also points out that the EU already bans direct imports of Russian petroleum products, and that since the start of the year this covers third-country diesel refined from Russian crude, a rule the US easing does not change. Whether Russia can actually deliver is unclear, because some of its refineries are reportedly at least damaged.

Reactions in The Hague and Washington

In a debate with the Dutch House of Representatives on Tuesday evening, 13 October, Prime Minister Rob Jetten said the deal must be taken off the table. He called it hard to explain and very undesirable and unwise, and said he would try to talk the Americans out of the idea in every contact the Netherlands has with them. He rejected Washington's argument that buying more Russian diesel would calm markets and lower consumer prices.

Every dollar that further fills the Russian war chest is bad news for Ukraine, and therefore for all of Ukraine's allies.

On the same day twelve senators, six Republicans led by Mitch McConnell and six Democrats, sent Trump a letter demanding that the deal be reversed. The letter, initiated by Democrat Richard Blumenthal, says the agreement gives Moscow more fuel to finance its war and violates a US law that bans energy imports until Russia ends its aggression. Three Republican senators had already joined Democrats on Sunday, 11 October, calling for a U-turn.

Midterms and Ukraine

Trump wants falling fuel prices before the midterm elections on 3 November, which will decide the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. Thomas Jäger, a political scientist and US expert, told Focus online that Trump is counting on voters who follow world affairs only loosely.

Whatever has now been agreed between the United States and Russia, even if it is implemented, will not change the price at all.

Jäger said Trump hopes reports about Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries will explain high prices to those voters. A YouGov poll cited by Focus found that 62% of Americans back Ukraine and 2% back Russia. Jäger also warned that halting arms sales to European NATO members that pass weapons on to Ukraine would cast doubt on American contracts, including Germany's purchase of F-35 fighter jets.