Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage provocations on NATO's eastern flank to test alliance cohesion

Intelligence warnings

Latvian intelligence reported signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. The assessment, published by The Guardian, stresses that the expected action is not a full-scale invasion but hybrid operations such as missile or drone strikes designed to send a signal. The goal would be to discourage European support for Ukraine and to test whether the United States would come to the defence of the smallest NATO members: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

“We see signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.”

A senior politician from another NATO country told the British daily that Vladimir Putin "is planning something" against the Baltic states and may want to check the credibility of American guarantees for them. The paper cautions that, unlike the detailed CIA and MI6 warnings before the 2022 invasion, the current signals are sparse on specifics, requiring careful interpretation.

Russia's hybrid tactics

Because Russia cannot open a second front, the Latvian service expects it to rely on hybrid measures. The possible scenarios include missile attacks, drone incursions and other provocations designed to rattle allied unity. Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski interpreted Putin's recent statement (that Russia would have to respond if attacked by a NATO country) as groundwork for a false-flag operation.

“I remind you that in August 1939 the Abwehr staged a 'Polish' attack on the Gleiwitz radio station to give itself a pretext for war.”

Sikorski stressed that Russia is already waging a full-scale cognitive war against Poland, spending an estimated 6 billion dollars on propaganda since the start of the Ukraine war.

Political reactions

Polish leaders responded forcefully to the mounting threat. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, speaking on the margins of a reconstruction conference in Gdańsk, said the situation was highly unstable and escalation of various kinds could be expected in the coming weeks and months. He also reacted to former Russian president Dmitrij Miedwiediew's warning to EU citizens that their "quiet sleep is over".

“Poland, the Baltic states, now Romania. More and more Russian provocations. Yesterday former Russian President Dmitrij Miedwiediew said that the quiet sleep of EU citizens is over. Everyone in NATO should finally start taking these facts and words seriously.”

Romanian authorities confirmed in May that a Russian drone struck a residential building in Galați, injuring two people. President Nicusor Dan called it the most serious such incident on Romanian soil since the start of the Ukraine war.

Expert analysis

With Russia's offensive in Ukraine stalled, Chatham House expert Keir Giles warned that Moscow will look for ways to disturb the current trend through horizontal escalation, spreading tension to other countries. He said it would be a mistake to assume Russia would accept defeat passively.

“Moscow will seek ways to disrupt the current trend through horizontal escalation (spreading the conflict to other countries) or actions elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to lose passively.”

A Western military source quoted by The Guardian added that Putin, feeling pressure from Ukraine, could strike out recklessly.

“I will not lie, this is a period of danger.”

Pattern of past provocations

The Guardian recalled a series of earlier incidents since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022: incendiary devices planted in DHL parcels in the UK, Poland and Germany in summer 2024, and 19 Russian decoy drones violating Polish airspace in September 2024, prompting NATO to scramble aircraft. The timeline below captures the recent escalation.