Ukraine warns Russia plans to mobilise 500,000 troops after September elections, braces for intense winter fighting
Kyiv's disinformation chief says the Kremlin will call up to half a million men after the Duma vote in September, with some sent to the front within two weeks and others trained for a new axis of attack.
Kyiv's warning
Andriy Kowałenko, director of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said on Telegram that Russia is preparing its largest mobilisation in months. According to his assessment, the Kremlin intends to call up as many as 500,000 soldiers this autumn, with the decision to be taken immediately after the State Duma elections scheduled for 18–20 September 2026.
Part of them they plan to send into combat within the first two weeks of mobilisation, others will be prepared for the potential opening of a new direction on the front. That is Russia's plan.
Kowałenko warned that Ukraine faces a "very intense winter" of heavy infantry combat supported by drones, satellite-guided KAB bombs and other weaponry.
Political calculus
Ukrainian analysts expect the Kremlin to avoid any public discussion of mobilisation until the Duma vote is over. The head of the Russian presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, and the chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reportedly convinced Vladimir Putin that executing the plan would allow Russia to reverse the situation on the front. Kowałenko dismissed that assessment, saying they are mistaken and that Ukraine will need unity and effective action.
Ukrainian soldiers will have to endure in difficult conditions of infantry combat, where people, drones, KABs and other killing tools will clash.
Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has noted that no new training centres for conscripts are being built, but existing infrastructure is considered sufficient to prepare the additional troops.
Ukraine's preparations
On 13 July, President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed extending martial law and general mobilisation in Ukraine for another 90 days, starting from 05:30 on 2 August 2026. Zelensky stated in December 2025 that the war with Russia would not end until Ukraine receives effective security guarantees, and that martial law cannot be lifted before then.
Recent strikes
While the mobilisation warning dominated the weekend, Ukraine continued its campaign of drone and missile strikes on Russian territory. On the night of 18 July, the governor of Tambov region, Yevgeny Pervyshov, reported that seven people were killed and 25 wounded in a drone attack on a warehouse in the town of Kotovsk. The Ukrainian General Staff said on Facebook that its drones also struck a fuel depot in Moscow region, causing a fire, and hit five ships and a patrol boat near Russian-occupied Crimea.
Outlook
- President Zelensky proposes extending martial law and mobilisation for 90 days from 2 August.
- Ukrainian drone strikes hit a warehouse in Kotovsk (7 dead, 25 wounded), a fuel depot in Moscow region, and five ships and a patrol boat near Crimea.
- Martial law and mobilisation extension takes effect in Ukraine.
- Russian State Duma elections held.
- Russia expected to announce mobilisation of up to 500,000 troops.
- First mobilised troops sent to the front.
- Remaining troops trained for a potential new front direction.
Kowałenko's assessment points to a sharp escalation in the autumn. The first wave of mobilised troops could reach the eastern front within two weeks of the announcement, while the remainder would undergo roughly one month of training for a potential new axis of attack. Ukrainian forces, already under strain, would then face a winter defined by attritional infantry battles and mass drone warfare.
