The uphill battle for Tomac

Eugen Tomac, the designated prime minister, is pushing ahead with his bid for a parliamentary vote of confidence despite facing a near-impossible arithmetic challenge. His proposed cabinet of specialists needs 233 votes to pass, but the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) have publicly refused to back any government linked to the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) has also withheld support, demanding a government with political ministers that includes its own members.

“I am confident, I am open, I am extremely determined to follow this path I have committed to, because it is my responsibility to try to convince all political parties that it is time to take a step forward for Romania.”

Tomac has secured backing from the parliamentary group of national minorities, but this support alone is insufficient. PSD sources indicate the party will not vote unanimously for the cabinet if PNL and USR do not also signal support, with two options under consideration: a collective abstention or a free vote allowing individual MPs to decide. The investiture vote is expected to be scheduled for 15–16 June.

Plan B: a political government led by Sorin Grindeanu

With Tomac's chances described by multiple sources as extremely slim, President Nicușor Dan is preparing a second-round nomination. The first backup plan involves abandoning the technocratic approach in favour of a political government. PSD is reportedly ready to take the reins, proposing former prime minister Sorin Grindeanu as the new candidate. This option, however, risks a total blockade, as PNL and USR have announced they would move into opposition rather than govern alongside PSD.

“After the first attempt we have to see how to move forward, but at this moment we cannot speculate on what will happen. If the Tomac government falls or he resigns the mandate, then the political parties must request a consultation with the president and all parties should come with proposals for prime ministers, because we are at the second attempt.”

A third scenario, described as a hybrid government mixing specialists with political appointees from PSD and UDMR, is also under discussion. This fragile majority would rely on the current emergency coalition, minorities, and unaffiliated MPs.

The Cotroceni strategy: rebuilding the former coalition

President Nicușor Dan's preferred path, according to political sources, is to rebuild the PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR coalition that governed before the no-confidence motion. Under this plan, the new government would be led by a presidential insider rather than a party figure. Two names are being circulated: Radu Burnete, the president's economic adviser, and Alexandru Nazare, the current finance minister.

“We have decisions taken. I don't think anything could change tomorrow.”

The president has already attempted to shift the positions of PNL and USR but met firm resistance from both party leaderships. An internal revolt within PNL against Ilie Bolojan's opposition stance failed, with only four members of the party leadership supporting a return to coalition with PSD. The PNL extended leadership is scheduled to meet on Thursday at 10:00 to discuss the party's direction, with the possibility of an extraordinary congress to decide whether to join a PSD-led government or remain in opposition.

Economic pressure and external deadlines

Romania has been in a governmental crisis for over a month since the PSD-AUR no-confidence motion brought down the Bolojan government. The country faces critical milestones under its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) that must be met by 31 August to secure vital European funds. Additionally, Fitch has announced a rating review for Romania on 31 July, and the absence of a fully empowered government by that date is expected to negatively affect the agency's decision.

What comes next

Tomac insists he will not abandon his mandate and will complete his consultations before presenting his conclusions and proposed timeline to President Nicușor Dan. The investiture vote is expected next week, with its failure likely to trigger a second round of presidential consultations. The outcome hinges on whether PNL and USR maintain their definitive break with PSD or whether internal dissent and external pressure force a recalculation.