Romania braces for four weeks of above-normal heat as ANM releases July forecast

Four-week outlook

Romania's National Meteorological Administration (ANM) published its updated forecast on Friday, covering 29 June to 27 July. Every week in the outlook shows temperatures above the 2006–2025 average for most or all of the country. The first week (29 June – 6 July) brings above-normal heat nationwide with precipitation near normal. In the second week (6–13 July), the warmth concentrates in the west, southwest and centre, while rainfall becomes deficient across the entire country, especially in mountain areas.

Current heatwave

A heatwave already gripping western Europe is expanding into Romania. The ANM has issued orange and yellow heat warnings valid through 29 June. Friday's highs are expected to reach 37 °C, Saturday 37–38 °C, and Sunday up to 39 °C. The temperature-humidity index (ITU) will exceed the critical threshold of 80 units, first in the plains and later in the hills. Meteorologists have not ruled out a red warning in the coming days.

Regional variations

The strongest positive temperature anomalies are consistently flagged for the western, southwestern and central regions. During the third week (13–20 July), all regions will be warmer than normal, but the west will again see the largest deviation. Precipitation patterns are mixed: the east and southeast may receive near-normal rainfall in the third week, while the rest of the country stays dry. The final week (20–27 July) returns to near-normal rainfall for most areas, though temperatures remain elevated.

Forecast methodology

The outlook is produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and estimates weekly averages of temperature and precipitation deviations from the 2006–2025 baseline. The ANM notes that short-duration extreme phenomena cannot be captured by this product.