Polish polls show Tusk's KO leads but right-wing bloc could form majority, projections reveal

Three opinion polls published in late June and early July show the same underlying pattern: Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) remains the largest party in vote intention, yet the arithmetic of seat distribution would leave it unable to form a government with its only likely coalition partner, Lewica. Instead, the numbers point to a right-wing majority.

Poll results

A survey conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS for Wirtualna Polska on 26–28 June placed KO at 29.2 percent (down 0.5 percentage points), PiS at 24.2 percent (up 0.1 pp). Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość received 10.7 percent, while Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (KKP) gained 10.1 percent. Lewica was at 7.8 percent. PSL (4.1%), Partia Razem (2.8%) and Polska 2050 (1.1%) all fell below the electoral threshold.

A separate Onet projection published on 1 July gave KO 33.8 percent (down 0.7 pp from a month earlier), PiS 25.8 percent, Konfederacja 12.5 percent, KKP 8.3 percent, and Nowa Lewica 6.8 percent.

A third poll by IBRiS for Grupa Polsat put KO at 28 percent (down from 29.3 in early June), PiS at 24.1 percent, Konfederacja at 13.7 percent, KKP at 9 percent and Lewica at 8.2 percent. Voter indecision ranged between 8.9 and 10 percent across the three measurements.

United Surveys: KO29.2%

United Surveys: PiS24.2%

United Surveys: Konfederacja10.7%

United Surveys: KKP10.1%

United Surveys: Lewica7.8%

Onet: KO33.8%

Onet: PiS25.8%

Onet: Konfederacja12.5%

Onet: KKP8.3%

Onet: Lewica6.8%

IBRiS Polsat: KO28%

IBRiS Polsat: PiS24.1%

IBRiS Polsat: Konfederacja13.7%

IBRiS Polsat: KKP9%

IBRiS Polsat: Lewica8.2%

United Surveys: KO

29.2 %

United Surveys: PiS

24.2 %

United Surveys: Konfederacja

10.7 %

United Surveys: KKP

10.1 %

United Surveys: Lewica

7.8 %

Onet: KO

33.8 %

Onet: PiS

25.8 %

Onet: Konfederacja

12.5 %

Onet: KKP

8.3 %

Onet: Lewica

6.8 %

IBRiS Polsat: KO

28 %

IBRiS Polsat: PiS

24.1 %

IBRiS Polsat: Konfederacja

13.7 %

IBRiS Polsat: KKP

9 %

IBRiS Polsat: Lewica

8.2 %

Data from the article text

Seat projections

Using the Jagiellonian University mandate calculator, the United Surveys data translates into 165 seats for KO, 135 for PiS, 58 for Konfederacja, 55 for KKP and 47 for Lewica. The Onet distribution gives KO 192 seats, PiS 152, Konfederacja 60, KKP 37 and Lewica 19. The IBRiS Polsat poll yields KO 163, PiS 147, Konfederacja 74, KKP 45 and Lewica 31.

The right-wing arithmetic

In all three scenarios, a potential KO–Lewica alliance falls short of the 231 seats needed for a majority (212, 211 and 194 seats respectively). Meanwhile, a combination of PiS, Konfederacja and KKP would hold 248 seats in the United Surveys projection, 249 in Onet's and 266 in the IBRiS Polsat simulation. This configuration would give the two Konfederacja parties decisive leverage, as PiS alone could not reach a majority without them.

Other findings

A separate IBRiS poll for Polsat News showed President Karol Nawrocki's approval rating rising to 51.7 percent (up from 48.1 percent in May/June), with negative ratings falling to 38.9 percent. Reported turnout in the IBRiS Polsat survey was 63 percent, lowest among voters aged 18–29 (48.2 percent) and highest among those over 70 (74.1 percent). Konfederacja drew 27 percent support among the youngest cohort, while older voters heavily favoured KO and PiS.