UN warns global temperatures will stay at record levels through 2030, with 2027 likely the next hottest year

Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels for the next five years, according to a new report from the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK's Met Office. The annual-to-decadal update, released on Thursday, synthesizes predictions from 13 different institutes worldwide and paints a stark picture of a planet continuing to heat up.

Record-breaking heat on the horizon

The report finds an 86 percent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. 2024 currently holds that title, with temperatures around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900. The 11 hottest individual years ever recorded have all occurred since 2015, and the WMO says that trend is set to continue, with a new hottest-ever year "likely" before 2031.

There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.

Leon Hermanson of the UK Met Office, the report's lead author, pointed to the cyclical climate phenomenon El Niño as a key driver. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 96 percent chance of an El Niño event between December 2026 and February 2027, with a 35 percent chance of it being a "super" El Niño. The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year and 2024 the all-time high.

The 1.5°C threshold in jeopardy

The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. The new WMO report indicates that threshold is increasingly under threat. Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.

There is a 91 percent chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial baseline for at least one year in the period. Furthermore, there is a 75 percent chance that the average temperature for the entire five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.

The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly.

Scientists caution that temporarily crossing the 1.5°C threshold in a single year does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as the target refers to a long-term average over 20 years. However, the WMO report found a less than 1 percent chance that any single year from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 2°C above the pre-industrial average, suggesting the weaker 2°C target remains within reach if urgent action is taken.

Arctic amplification and severe weather

The report highlights that the Arctic will continue to warm at a dramatically faster rate than the rest of the planet. Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the next five years are projected to rise at more than three-and-a-half times the global average, reaching around 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Arctic sea-ice is expected to melt in the month of March over the next half-decade in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

This amplified Arctic warming could disrupt weather systems and prompt more severe weather events, especially in northern parts of the world. The report also predicts wetter weather in the northern hemisphere over the next five winters, including wet periods in northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia.

Europe swelters under a heat dome

The WMO's outlook was released as western Europe endures a "heat dome" of warm air, breaking temperature records for May in Britain, France, and Ireland. The ongoing heatwave was described by UN climate chief Simon Stiell as a "brutal reminder" of the climate crisis.

The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are continuing to rise, trapping more heat and driving more extreme weather. Global heating is already estimated to be taking one life every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly. The WMO report underscores that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided reduces damage, even as the window to meet the Paris goals narrows.