Putin rejects peace talks, considers strikes on NATO bases in Baltic states and Romania

Putin rejects peace overtures

Three sources close to the Kremlin have told Reuters that Vladimir Putin is dismissing calls for negotiations and is determined to continue the war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and ports have only hardened his resolve, the sources said. One source who meets regularly with the president described a "high probability" of escalation in the coming months. Putin recently rebuked a group of advisors who suggested a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front lines, and in June he publicly rejected a call from Volodimir Zelenski for a meeting and truce.

Russia is ready for a peaceful solution, but has sufficient capacity to act independently and continue the special military operation.

Potential strikes on NATO territory

Former Russian Defence Ministry official Andrei Ilnitsky warned in a late-June article in Kommersant that the next phase of escalation could involve attacks on NATO bases in the Baltic states and Romania, as well as European Union facilities producing long-range drones and missiles for Ukraine. Such a move would risk drawing Russia into a direct confrontation with NATO and testing the alliance's collective defence. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute noted that Russia might attempt to create tensions within NATO through isolated strikes, similar to the incident in which a Russian drone crashed into a residential building in Galați, Romania.

Russia could try to provoke tensions within NATO through isolated attacks, comparable to the drone that crashed into a building in Galați.

Trump's peace push and Kremlin response

President Donald Trump said on Monday that Putin wants to end the war and that a solution is "closer than people realise." He held separate phone calls with Putin and Zelensky last week, and met the Ukrainian leader at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. Zelensky said they discussed "ideas to bring peace closer." Trump also suggested that the escalation of Ukrainian attacks could put pressure on Russia and help stop the war, but the Kremlin immediately warned that intensifying strikes would only prolong the conflict.

The escalation of Ukrainian attacks could put pressure on the Russian aggressor and help stop the war.

Kyiv's intelligence and military outlook

A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that intelligence reports from recent months indicate Putin is preparing for new stages of the war, including further operations in Ukraine or a possible attack on another European country. Western military analysts believe Russia would need a mandatory conscription to achieve its objective of capturing the entire Donbas region, where the Russian advance has slowed this year. Putin has so far hesitated to announce such a politically unpopular move.

We discussed ideas to bring peace closer.

Timeline of recent developments