Polish poll shows dead heat between Nawrocki and Tusk over fuel windfall tax

A contested bill on fuel profits

In early October 2026, Polish President Karol Nawrocki signed government legislation establishing a windfall tax on fuel company profits while referring the act to the Constitutional Tribunal for subsequent review. The decision formed the second phase of a protracted conflict between the presidency and the government over fuel prices, following Nawrocki's decision in July to veto a similar legislative proposal. Members of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's ruling coalition expressed satisfaction with the passage of the price-reducing measure, yet they acknowledged surprise at the signature because the contents of Nawrocki's address were known only to his closest associates. Standing outside the Belweder palace on the day after the signing, Tusk claimed political victory in the dispute.

And why ride such a high horse?

Public opinion remains evenly split

Despite the prime minister's declaration of victory, polling data indicates that neither executive holds a clear public advantage. A survey conducted by SW Research for Onet on 6 and 7 October 2026 showed that 36% of respondents viewed Nawrocki as the winner of the fuel conflict, compared to 34.8% who selected Tusk, leaving a gap of 1.2 percentage points. A further 29.1% of participants answered that they did not know or found it difficult to say. The nationwide study surveyed 820 adult participants through computer-assisted web interviews using quota sampling representative of gender, age, and locality size.

Generational divide in voter perceptions

The survey findings revealed distinct age polarization regarding who prevailed in the institutional clash. Nawrocki secured higher numbers among younger and middle-aged demographics, leading Tusk 40.5% to 33.2% among voters up to 24 years old and capturing 43.8% among respondents aged 25 to 34. In the 35 to 49 age bracket, the president received 40.2% compared to 29.1% for the prime minister. Tusk established a clear advantage only among respondents over 50 years of age, where 42.5% considered him the victor against 29.6% who favored Nawrocki.

Shifting government tactics and future flashpoints

Following Nawrocki's move, the governing coalition adjusted its political approach toward the presidency. One cabinet member told Rzeczpospolita that attacking the president over vetoes had been simpler than ensuring sustained price declines, adding that the administration now plans to focus on other controversies. These include reports regarding Nawrocki's purchase of horses, intended to portray him as indulging in taxpayer-funded luxuries, as well as his attendance at a boxing gala displaying the logo of Nowrocky, a company commercializing presidential merchandise. The coalition also plans to pressure Nawrocki to sign previously vetoed legislation, including cryptocurrency regulations, and to approve pending ambassadorial appointments. Furthermore, cabinet members are monitoring the December G20 summit, where US President Donald Trump invited Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing concern over Nawrocki potentially standing between both leaders.

Strained relations between presidency and cabinet

Parliamentary leaders and academic commentators view the dispute as symptomatic of broader institutional friction. Deputy Marshal of the Sejm Dorota Niedziela stated that Nawrocki retreats only when political conflict threatens him with polling losses. Jagiellonian University sociologist Jarosław Flis noted that the political friction has produced an exceptionally difficult relationship between the two executive offices.

We are entering uncharted waters. We have never had a president who had such bad relations with the government.

Flis observed that the head of state's honeymoon period has ended, concluding that the president's future standing will depend on the results of the next parliamentary elections.