Polish fuel prices set to ease as wholesale costs fall, but government stalls on subsidy return

Fuel prices at the pump

Polish drivers continue to pay over 8 zł per litre for diesel and Pb98 gasoline after the expiry of the "Ceny Paliwa Niżej" (CPN) subsidy programme. According to e-petrol.pl data, the average retail price of Pb95 gasoline stood at 7.55 zł per litre in the week ending 7 August, while diesel rose by 23 groszy to 8.22 zł per litre, crossing the 8 zł barrier. Pb98 averaged 8.35 zł per litre in the previous week, and LPG hovered around 3 zł per litre.

Forecasts from e-petrol.pl for the period 10 to 16 August point to modest declines: Pb95 between 7.21 and 7.36 zł per litre, diesel between 7.99 and 8.19 zł, Pb98 between 8.09 and 8.28 zł, and LPG between 2.90 and 2.99 zł. Analyst Grzegorz Maziak told TOK FM that wholesale drops of 30 to 40 groszy per litre were already visible, which should push some stations below 7 zł for Pb95 and below 8 zł for diesel in the coming week.

Wholesale market turns

Between 1 and 7 August, all main fuels fell sharply in the wholesale market. Diesel dropped by 489 zł per cubic metre, from 6,695 to 6,206 zł, while Pb95 fell by 464 zł, from 5,738 to 5,273 zł. Pb98 declined by 463 zł, from 6,437 to 5,974 zł, and heating oil by 444 zł, from 5,262 to 4,818 zł.

The retreat follows global oil price movements driven by tensions between the United States and Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil reached $93.14 per barrel at the end of July, with a monthly gain of roughly 20 percent, the largest since March. Dr. Carolyn Kissane of New York University's Center for Global Affairs described the market as being in a holding pattern.

This is a moment of waiting. The market is watching whether the conflict will escalate and whether the United States will respond to Iran on a large scale, or opt for a more limited retaliation.

Orlen's record profit and stock slide

Orlen reported a net profit of 15.87 billion zł for the first half of 2026 on 6 August, an increase of nearly 10.2 billion zł year-over-year. The company attributed the surge to market destabilisation following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Despite the strong results, Orlen's shares fell on 7 August from an opening price of 154.28 zł to below 148 zł within hours. The stock had reached its all-time high of 156 zł on 24 July.

Government response stalled

Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Wednesday that a decision on reinstating the CPN fuel subsidy package would come within 48 hours, potentially in a reduced form. Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka later told Polsat News that the decision would most likely be taken the following week, as the government first wants to observe developments around the Strait of Hormuz following declarations by US President Donald Trump.

A windfall tax on fuel companies' extraordinary profits, estimated to raise 4 billion zł to fund the CPN programme, has been blocked. President Karol Nawrocki sent the legislation to the Constitutional Tribunal for preventive review, arguing its provisions violate the principle that law does not apply retroactively. The tax covered profits from March to December 2026. Motyka said several alternatives were under consideration, including taxing foreign conglomerates.

The first piece of good news is that wholesale prices are falling after the recent declarations from the United States and Iran about possible peace. This should translate to the stations.

Public pressure

A poll conducted for Wprost found that 66.2 percent of respondents supported restoring the CPN package for the final two weeks of the summer holidays, while only 14 percent opposed it. Data from BIG InfoMonitor showed that 82 percent of Poles fear rising fuel prices will push up the cost of goods and services more broadly.