Sikorski warns of Russian false-flag provocation against Poland ahead of NATO summit

Russian threats and denials

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has warned that Russia is capable of staging a limited provocation against Poland, possibly using drones disguised as Ukrainian, to create a pretext for escalation. In an interview with CNN on the eve of a NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Ankara, Sikorski said Russia lacks the forces for a frontal attack on the Alliance but could attempt a false-flag operation. His comments follow reports in The Telegraph and The Guardian that US intelligence had alerted Warsaw to scenarios including missile or drone strikes on critical infrastructure and a brief border incursion by Russian or Belarusian troops.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the reports as "scare stories" and Western propaganda. On 5 July he said Warsaw "should think well about its security" and noted that Russian defence ministry had published addresses of Polish drone manufacturers. Sikorski responded that the rhetoric was identical to Moscow's denials in the weeks before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Exactly the same thing they said in the weeks before the invasion of Ukraine. They categorically denied having any intention of attacking Ukraine, just as earlier they denied that the little green men in Crimea were their troops.

Western solidarity and the Ankara meeting

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani expressed full solidarity with Poland, calling the Russian threats "provocations aimed at intimidating others." He said he would reiterate that support at the E5 foreign ministers' gathering in Ankara on 7 July. Sikorski, meanwhile, stressed that Poland still trusts US security guarantees and is seeking a second permanent American base on its soil, even as further reductions of US forces in Europe "are clearly coming."

Russian threats against NATO, and recently against Poland, are provocations meant to intimidate. But no one is intimidated by the statements of a Kremlin representative.

Sikorski argued that the Alliance is stronger than before Russia's attack on Ukraine, pointing to the accession of Finland and Sweden and a jump in European defence spending, partly under pressure from President Trump. He added that if any ally truly distrusted the US, it should spend even more on defence.

The Ukraine parallel and possible de-escalation

Sikorski recalled that US intelligence warnings in early 2022 had deterred Moscow from fabricating a casus belli for the invasion of Ukraine. He suggested that the current public and private warnings from the West might have already led Russia to abandon some of its plans. "If representatives of the Russian authorities say it won't happen, they may be lying, or they may have backed off in light of our warnings," he said.

I hope these warnings mean that Putin will not press the provocation button.

Domestic political backdrop

The diplomatic tension unfolded alongside a domestic row over military aid to Ukraine. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz ordered the declassification of all donations made between 2022 and 2026. Sikorski said the move would show how much Poland had helped Kyiv and criticised the opposition for demanding transparency out of spite. He also rebuked President Karol Nawrocki for revoking Ukraine's Order of the White Eagle, calling the decision "the geopolitics of childishness."