Poland manufacturing PMI rises to 49.0 in September as output and order drops ease

Industrial activity and headline index

Poland's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.0 points in September 2026 from 48.3 points in August, according to the monthly survey published by S&P Global. The result exceeded market consensus forecasts and represented the highest level recorded since the spring of 2026. However, the headline figure remained below the neutral 50.0 threshold, extending the continuous contraction of the country's manufacturing sector to seventeen consecutive months. S&P Global indicated that while business conditions continued to deteriorate, the pace of decline softened across several primary metrics, including output, new business, and factory staffing levels. Trevor Balchin, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, described the trajectory of the industrial sector in the survey release.

In September, the headline PMI remained below the neutral 50.0 threshold, continuing the current period of manufacturing decline that began in May 2025. However, it should be noted that several key indices moved in the right direction; output, new orders, and employment all fell at slower rates than in August.

Order books and factory output

Total incoming orders placed with Polish manufacturing firms dropped for the eighteenth consecutive month in September 2026, driven by weak market demand and persistent pricing headwinds. Foreign demand showed deeper contraction, as export orders shrank for the tenth consecutive month and did so at a faster rate than in August. In contrast, the overall decline in total new orders moderated compared to the summer months, providing immediate relief to production schedules. Factory output fell at a noticeably slower pace in September, although production levels have now declined in 15 out of the past 17 months. Polish manufacturers responded to future production schedules by beginning to rebuild their inventories of production inputs ahead of the fourth quarter.

Supply chains and input cost pressures

Polish manufacturers continued to navigate logistical difficulties throughout September 2026, as supply chain constraints caused delivery lead times for manufacturing materials to lengthen. Input cost inflation decelerated for the fourth time in five months, yet cost pressures remained elevated above the historical long-term average. Survey respondents attributed the persistent cost increases to higher expenditures on raw materials, energy, fuels, and freight transport linked to ongoing international geopolitical disruptions. To protect operating margins against these expenses, manufacturing companies raised the prices of finished goods leaving factory gates at an accelerated pace during September. Monika Kurtek, Chief Economist and Director of the Economic Analysis Bureau, noted that these cost pressures reflect global geopolitical instability.

Business expectations and annual outlook

Business sentiment regarding output over the coming twelve months improved among Polish manufacturing enterprises, reaching its highest level since spring 2026. Companies reported preparations to expand production volumes toward the end of the year, supporting this planning with the gradual accumulation of input materials. The current manufacturing downturn, which began in May 2025, remains a central factor for Poland's gross domestic product trajectory because industrial performance closely correlates with broader national output. While domestic order stabilization provided support to manufacturers, the continued reduction in export orders reflects persistent demand weakness across key international markets. Factory managers continue to adjust purchasing and employment policies as they monitor persistent energy costs and evolving contract pipelines.