Poland leaves key interest rate at 3.75% as August inflation climbs to 3.4%

Policy decision and rate levels

The Monetary Policy Council concluded its two-day session on Wednesday, 9 September, voting to keep all National Bank of Poland interest rates at their current levels. The decision held the benchmark reference rate at 3.75%, matching the consensus expectations of financial analysts. The Lombard rate remained at 4.25%, the deposit rate at 3.25%, the rediscount rate on bills at 3.80%, and the discount rate on bills at 3.85%. Wednesday's decision extends the policy pause that began after the Council implemented a single cut of 0.25 percentage points in early March 2026.

The current 3.75% benchmark stands as the lowest rate since April 2022. The steady stance follows an extensive easing cycle throughout 2025, during which the central bank approved six separate interest rate cuts that reduced the reference rate from 5.75% down to 4.00%.

Inflation uptick and commodity market pressure

The Council kept borrowing costs steady as domestic inflation moved further above the central bank's medium-term target. A flash estimate released by Statistics Poland showed that consumer price index inflation rose to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2026, up from 3.0% in July. The reading approaches the upper tolerance threshold of the central bank's target of 2.5%, which permits a deviation band of 1 percentage point in either direction.

The Monetary Policy Council pointed to rising transport fuel expenses and broader core pressures in its official communiqué released on Wednesday afternoon.

According to the flash estimate from Statistics Poland, CPI inflation in August 2026 increased to 3.4% year-on-year (from 3.0% year-on-year in July). This was primarily driven by higher annual price dynamics for fuel for personal transport. It can be estimated that inflation excluding food and energy prices also increased in August. Under these conditions, the Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged.

External energy dynamics reinforced the cautious policy stance. Ongoing disruptions and a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz kept global hydrocarbon costs elevated, with crude oil trading above $90 per barrel and approaching the $100 threshold, up from approximately $75 per barrel in June. Over the same period, natural gas prices on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility exchange traded above $70 per megawatt-hour, compared to $40.40 per megawatt-hour in June. Domestically, high summer electricity generation at coal and gas power plants reduced fuel inventories held in national storage facilities.

Market projections and future policy scenarios

Although the median forecast among bank analysts projects borrowing costs to remain unchanged through mid-2027, divergent views have emerged across the financial sector. Pricing in the Forward Rate Agreement market indicates that traders see potential for two or three interest rate increases within the next twelve months, totaling between 0.50 and 0.75 percentage points.

Economists at Credit Agricole Bank Polska also revised their monetary outlook, projecting a possible 0.25 percentage point rate increase in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Strong GDP growth in Poland, the spillover of the energy shock into the economy, and higher inflation will likely prompt the MPC to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points following the projection in November.

The Council stated that subsequent interest rate decisions will depend on incoming data concerning domestic economic activity and inflation developments. National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński will present further context on the macroeconomic environment during a press conference on Thursday, 10 September.