World Bank raises Poland 2026 GDP forecast to 3.6% on recovery fund spending

GDP forecast revisions for 2026 through 2028

The World Bank upgraded its gross domestic product growth forecast for Poland to 3.6% for 2026, marking an increase of 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimate in June. The organization also raised its 2027 gross domestic product projection for Poland by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%. For 2028, however, the forecast was adjusted downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%. These revisions indicate a concentration of expected economic expansion in 2026 rather than a structural upgrade in Poland's long-term output trajectory. In its previous assessment published in June, the World Bank anticipated Polish economic growth rates of 3.1% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027, and 2.9% in 2028.

Impact of National Recovery Plan spending

The acceleration of Poland's economic output in 2026 is driven primarily by an influx of capital investments associated with the National Recovery Plan (KPO). As the deadline for utilizing European Union post-pandemic facilities approaches, financial disbursements are concentrating into an accelerated execution period. These funds are allocated to extensive infrastructure projects, clean energy initiatives, and public digital transformations, which together create direct demand for construction materials, specialized services, and industrial labor. The concentration of public capital expenditure is expected to bolster domestic productive capacity, though the magnitude of the long-term benefit depends on project execution and the extent to which public funds trigger private capital participation.

Central European trends and household consumption

Beyond state-directed investments, household spending serves as a critical pillar supporting near-term economic performance. When real wage growth outpaces inflation rates, Polish households retain financial capacity to expand consumer expenditures. On a regional scale, the World Bank projects economic activity across Central Europe to remain stable at approximately 2.5% over the 2027 and 2028 period, benefiting from stronger economic expansion in the European Union.

Stronger economic expansion in the EU should help keep economic growth in Central Europe broadly steady at around 2.5 percent in 2027-28.

Post-funding deceleration and structural risks

Economic momentum in Poland is projected to taper significantly once the allocation period for European Union recovery funds concludes. The World Bank estimates that annual gross domestic product growth will moderate from 3.6% in 2026 to an average rate of 2.8% across 2027 and 2028.

Growth will slow from 3.6 percent in 2026 to an average of 2.8 percent in 2027-2028, as disbursements under the National Recovery Plan come to an end and slower real wage growth dampens household consumption.

This transition exposes the Polish economy to several structural and external risks. Following the termination of recovery programs, high comparative baselines create the risk of a domestic investment gap if private enterprise does not sustain capital expenditure. External demand conditions also remain vital, as the European Union represents the primary export destination for Polish manufacturing. A protracted period of weakness across key European trading partners would restrict growth, while persistent domestic inflation, central bank interest rate settings, elevated energy prices, and regional geopolitical tensions present additional obstacles to sustaining the projected growth path.