Peru runoff hangs in balance with Keiko Fujimori tipped to overtake Roberto Sánchez as EU observers flag slow count

A razor-thin margin

With 96% of the vote counted from Sunday's runoff, Roberto Sánchez of Juntos por el Perú leads with 50.05% against 49.94% for populist right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori — a gap of roughly 20,000 ballots out of nearly 18 million cast. The narrow spread has frozen Fujimori's expectations and stirred triunfalism on the left, reviving memories of Pedro Castillo's 2021 victory by a similar handful of votes.

It is likely that the numbers we are seeing now will be reversed. We have to wait for 100% of the votes.

EU observers praise order, criticize sluggish count

European election monitors on Tuesday described Sunday's voting as peaceful and well organized, despite isolated incidents and hour-long delays in opening some Lima polling stations due to absent staff. The head of the EU mission, Italian MEP Annalisa Corrado, endorsed the voting and counting procedures while warning that drawn-out result proclamations were stoking public distrust.

The organization of the elections was carried out adequately. Election day passed in a calm and orderly atmosphere, although with some isolated incidents, and EU observers assessed the voting and counting processes positively.

We are concerned about the slowness of the electoral process in proclaiming results, which, far from guaranteeing, creates a climate of greater distrust and unease among the population. This is something that can be improved.

Math points to a Fujimori comeback

Mathematical modeler Renzo Núñez forecasts an even narrower final tally of 50.02% for Fujimori and 49.98% for Sánchez. Expert Mauricio Saravia agrees, arguing that the remaining overseas ballots and an expected strong showing by Fujimori in those votes make a reversal almost certain. Sánchez's only real hope, Saravia notes, lies in the Cusco region and in limiting Fujimori's margin abroad.

It remains most likely that the overall result will narrow and flip as more votes from abroad come in. Sánchez practically only has hope placed in Cusco and that abroad Fujimori does not get as many votes as expected. Almost impossible that it does not reverse.

A campaign shadowed by fraud narrative

Corrado highlighted that the period between the first round on 12 April and the runoff was poisoned by a "persistent narrative of fraud" — stoked by far-right ex-candidate Rafael López Aliaga and fuelled by logistical problems in distributing electoral material during the first round. The delayed proclamation of first-round results also hung over the second-round campaign, which was marked by low intensity and cases of racism and discrimination against the leftist ticket.

We are confident that this time the delay in results will not fuel fraud speeches.

What comes next

Two genuine battles remain. First, the official count should reach around 98.4% of ballots; then the so-called "actas observadas" — polling-station records with inconsistencies that cannot be electronically processed — must be resolved by the National Jury of Elections. If the first stage drags on, as happened after April's first round, it could overlap with the second, prolonging uncertainty.