Armenia's ruling party claims victory in parliamentary election, cementing pro-Western course

Election results and turnout

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party won a clear majority in the parliamentary election held on Sunday, with partial results showing between 50.83% and 57% of the vote depending on the count stage. The Central Election Commission reported a voter turnout of 59%, up from 49% in the 2021 election. Pashinyan declared victory during a press conference, stating his party would form the government alone and had received more votes than in the previous election.

The Civil Contract party will form the government alone.

The pro-Russian Strong Armenia party, led by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, placed second with approximately 21% to 23.5%. Former president Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance came third with around 8% to 9.5%, and Prosperous Armenia secured roughly 5%. The combined pro-Russian opposition forces fell short of a parliamentary majority.

A directional vote on foreign policy

The election was framed by both the government and opposition as a referendum on Armenia's geopolitical orientation. Pashinyan, in power since 2018, has pursued closer ties with the European Union and the United States while freezing Armenia's participation in a Russian-led security alliance. He has also sought a peace agreement with Azerbaijan following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The European Union is our most important partner in implementing democratic reforms.

Opposition figures criticized Pashinyan's westward shift. Karapetyan described the prime minister's approach as reckless. Russia has responded with economic pressure, including import bans on Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, and fresh produce, and threats to multiply gas prices. President Vladimir Putin warned in May that Armenia could suffer Ukraine's fate, comparing EU ambitions to what he called the trigger for the 2022 invasion.

The shadow of Nagorno-Karabakh

The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan between 2020 and 2023 remains a defining trauma. Around 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled the region into Armenia's core territory. Protests erupted in Yerevan, with demonstrators accusing Pashinyan of incompetence. Yet the defeat also eroded public faith in Russia, which remained passive during the conflict while waging war in Ukraine.

There is no more constant shooting at the border, that is good.

Many voters credited Pashinyan with improving security and rejected the return of the old Moscow-aligned elite. Analysts noted a shift in public mood, with peace and stability gaining traction as electoral priorities.

Arrests and allegations of irregularities

Armenian authorities detained more than 40 people on suspicion of vote-buying ahead of election day, including six candidates from Strong Armenia, according to Politico. Party founder Samvel Karapetyan, under house arrest since July on charges of inciting overthrow, dismissed the allegations as politically motivated. Police searched a Strong Armenia office in Gyumri on Sunday, and further investigations were opened against candidates and activists from the three pro-Russian opposition parties.

Russia's economic leverage

Despite the political estrangement, Russia remains Armenia's largest trading partner with a 36% share of foreign trade, according to the BBC. Moscow has deployed import restrictions and gas price threats as levers. The Tagesspiegel noted that EU influence in the Caucasus remains limited compared to Russia's hard-power tools, citing the deterrent effect of three Chechen wars and ongoing Russian military presence in occupied Georgian provinces.