Pashinyan declares victory in Armenia's parliamentary election as pro-Western party leads with over 54%

Pashinyan claims victory

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared victory in the early hours of Monday morning, after preliminary results from just over one-fifth of polling stations showed his Civil Contract party with around 54% of the vote. Speaking at a press conference, Pashinyan called the result a 'historic victory'.

This is a historic victory.

The Central Election Commission released early figures showing Civil Contract at 54.5% with 21% of precincts reporting. The pro-Russian Strong Armenia alliance, founded by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, was in second place with 21.9%. The Armenia Alliance placed third with 8.7%, and the Prosperous Armenia party was fourth with roughly 5%.

A geopolitical crossroads

Sunday's vote was Armenia's first general election since a crushing military defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023. It was widely seen as a referendum on Pashinyan's push to deepen ties with the West and secure a peace deal with Azerbaijan after decades of intermittent conflict. The ruling party's main objective was to retain its constitutional majority, which it needs to introduce reforms required for signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

The governing party's main goal was to renew its constitutional majority, since that determines whether it can soon introduce the reforms essential for signing the long-awaited peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan's Civil Contract has steered Armenia closer to the West since taking power in 2018. His key rival, Samvel Karapetyan, campaigned on a pro-business platform and a pledge to maintain Armenia's close ties to Russia. Karapetyan was under house arrest during the campaign, accused of money laundering, tax evasion, and publicly calling for the overthrow of the constitutional order.

Diverging exit polls

Exit polls painted a mixed picture of the scale of Pashinyan's victory. A survey commissioned by the ruling party and reported by Civic News gave Civil Contract 56.7% and Strong Armenia 17.5%. Independent exit polls cited by local Telegram channels showed a much narrower race, with Civil Contract at 32.7% and Strong Armenia at 29%. The opposition has expressed hope that pro-Russian parties combined could still unseat Pashinyan.

Turnout and irregularities

Turnout in the country of roughly 3 million people reached nearly 59% of eligible voters, according to the Central Election Commission. Some 2.5 million voters were registered. The election day was marked by several arrests. Armenia's Anti-Corruption Committee reported detaining dozens of people linked to opposition groups on charges related to voting process violations. Police also searched the offices of Strong Armenia in the city of Gyumri and made several arrests. A stabbing near a polling station was reported, though authorities said it stemmed from a traffic dispute.

Russia's response

Yerevan's rapprochement with Europe has drawn sharp reactions from Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin made veiled threats last month about negative economic consequences if Armenia continued its westward course. In the weeks before the election, Russia introduced new restrictions on Armenian produce, including alcohol, vegetables, fruit, and fish. The Kremlin also warned that Armenia cannot be part of both the European Union and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union simultaneously. The most explicit threat involved cutting gas and oil supplies that Russia currently maintains.

The Kremlin has also banned the import of various Armenian products such as alcohol, vegetables, fruit and fish. This measure is pressure on the Armenian economy and at the same time symbolic because it banned trade in products closely linked to Armenia such as cognac.

The official preliminary results are expected to be announced later on Monday.