Orlen increases wholesale fuel prices as diesel retail margins near zero
Polish refiner Orlen increased wholesale gasoline prices on 25 September 2026, putting pressure on petrol station margins and pushing forecast retail diesel above 9 PLN per litre.
Wholesale price adjustments
Polish fuel group Orlen announced higher prices on the domestic wholesale market on Friday, 25 September 2026, following a brief period of price stability. In weekly terms, wholesale unleaded Pb98 rose by 184 PLN per cubic metre to reach 7,291 PLN per cubic metre on Friday. Unleaded Pb95 wholesale prices grew by 123 PLN per cubic metre over the same seven-day window, reaching 6,469 PLN per cubic metre. Diesel fuel moved in the opposite direction over the full week, decreasing by 41 PLN per cubic metre to stand at 7,483 PLN per cubic metre. Within recent individual price updates, Orlen added 0.20 PLN per litre to wholesale Pb95 gasoline and 0.14 PLN per litre to wholesale diesel.
- Diesel
- 7483 PLN/m3
- Pb98
- 7291 PLN/m3
- Pb95
- 6469 PLN/m3
Retail forecasts and margin pressure
Accounting for Poland's 23% value-added tax, baseline wholesale figures equal roughly 7.96 PLN per litre of Pb95 and 9.20 PLN per litre of diesel before any station margin is applied. Service stations across the country have attempted to hold retail diesel prices under the threshold of 9.00 PLN per litre, but doing so has nearly exhausted their retail profit margins. For gasoline products, operating conditions are slightly more favourable because retail margins remain positive, though still at low levels. Analysts from e-petrol.pl warned that retail diesel is likely to break past 9.00 PLN per litre in the coming week. Their price projections place retail diesel between 8.99 PLN and 9.29 PLN per litre, Pb95 between 7.97 PLN and 8.09 PLN per litre, Pb98 between 8.85 PLN and 8.99 PLN per litre, and autogas (LPG) between 3.14 PLN and 3.24 PLN per litre.
- Pb98
- 184 PLN/m3
- Pb95
- 123 PLN/m3
- Diesel
- -41 PLN/m3
International crude market fluctuations
The domestic price increases developed alongside substantial price volatility on the global crude market throughout the third week of September. On Tuesday, Brent crude dropped below 100 dollars per barrel for the first time in two weeks, driven by optimism regarding the resumption of negotiations between the United States and Iran. However, crude markets reversed course in the latter half of the week, with Brent rising back above 105 dollars per barrel on Friday, 25 September. This rapid rebound in crude quotations elevated wholesale acquisition costs for domestic refiners and erased the temporary relief observed earlier in the week. Analysts noted that these shifting international crude dynamics continue to transmit directly into Polish refinery pricing schedules.
Global supply risks and trade pressures
In addition to crude oil volatility, international energy analysts drew attention to structural supply risks affecting diesel fuel. Market concern focused heavily on the potential implementation of diesel export limits by the United States government. The United States currently accounts for roughly 20% of global maritime diesel trade. Restricting diesel outflows from American ports would disrupt global supply chains and generate further upward price pressure on refined fuels internationally. Polish fuel analysts noted that such export barriers would exacerbate existing retail margin compression across European fuel distribution networks, leaving domestic drivers exposed to elevated prices at the pump.
