Oil prices return to pre-war levels as Strait of Hormuz reopens, but Iran warns on shipping

Oil prices erase war premium

Brent crude traded at $72.24 a barrel on Thursday, below its pre-war level, while WTI fell to $69, down 30% from early June. The decline follows the preliminary 60-day deal between the U.S. and Iran and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at least 20 million barrels exited the strait in 24 hours, nearing pre-war volumes. The IMF noted that urea, fertilizer and base metal prices have also fallen with resumed Gulf shipments.

So this means that there will be some time before we... go back to a normal state, and of course that all assumes that the ceasefire remains in place.

Strait traffic rebounds but Iran asserts control

Data from the International Maritime Organization showed 57 ships carrying about 1,100 seafarers transited the strait since June 23 under an evacuation plan coordinated with Oman. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards rejected newly announced shipping routes not coordinated with Tehran as unacceptable and dangerous, and warned vessels to stick to Iranian-designated paths. The warning came after Oman announced temporary lanes with the UN shipping agency.

Diplomacy and domestic pressure

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Bahrain, said the U.S. was pursuing an enduring peace and that Tehran would not be allowed to impose fees on vessels using the strait. Oman's foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaid echoed that future arrangements should not involve tolls. Meanwhile, President Trump faced Republican criticism at home and clashed with Senator Bill Cassidy shortly before the administration requested tens of billions of dollars for the war effort.

The reality of it is that no country on Earth has the right to charge for the use of international waterways. And that will never be an acceptable condition of any deal.

Inflation and economic outlook

ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski said the oil price decline was faster than expected and would remove further inflation pressure. He now expects German inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, with an annual average of 3.1%, down from earlier forecasts. However, he cautioned that mines must still be cleared from the water and ships insured. Fuel prices at the pump are likely to rise again when a temporary tax rebate expires at month-end, and airfares remain elevated despite the fading jet fuel crisis.

Rocket up, feather down.