OECD raises Italy 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% citing resilience and recovery funds

Upgraded projections for Italy

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its 2026 economic growth projection for Italy to 0.9% in its Interim Economic Outlook presented in Paris on 23 September 2026. The new estimate is 0.4 percentage points higher than the 0.5% expansion predicted in June. The organization left its 2027 forecast for the country unchanged at 0.6%, following a 0.5% growth rate recorded in 2025. Italian growth in the first half of the year benefited from an upward revision to first-quarter output by national statistics bureau Istat and stronger second-quarter performance. Domestic activity has found support in consumer spending and public investments funded by the European Union recovery package.

The Italian economy, like that of other countries such as Germany and Spain, has demonstrated greater resilience than we could have expected in June.

Drivers and medium-term constraints

Italy remains the largest beneficiary in Europe of the post-pandemic recovery plan known as the PNRR. Stefano Scarpetta pointed out that these European resources will conclude at the end of 2026, removing a primary growth driver ahead of 2027. Italian inflation is projected at 3% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, with the 2027 figure revised upward by 0.4 percentage points. Household purchasing power remains constrained, with Italian real wages remaining 6.1% below 2021 levels. Marcello Messori noted that compressed real wages and potential European Central Bank interest rate reactions could weigh further on household demand.

Global outlook and international comparisons

Global gross domestic product is projected to expand by 2.9% in 2026, slightly above the 2.8% forecast in June, before reaching 3% in 2027 compared to 3.4% in 2025. The United States economy is projected to expand 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, where investments in artificial intelligence help offset slowing consumer spending and real income growth. The eurozone is forecast to grow by 1% in both 2026 and 2027 after expanding 1.3% in 2025, supported by stabilizing energy costs and defense sector projects. China's annual growth rate is projected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. Global economic performance remains exposed to energy disruptions in Gulf economies and weather-related increases in agricultural commodity prices.

Global growth has held up better than expected, but the buffers that helped cushion the energy shock are running low.

Domestic budget and policy reactions

Fratelli d'Italia member of the European Parliament Nicola Procaccini welcomed the OECD figures, comparing the 0.9% projection to the 0.4% average annual growth rate seen during the two decades before the Meloni government. Procaccini pointed to public finance consolidation, stating that the budget deficit narrowed from 8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.1% in 2025. The Italian government aims to bring the deficit below the European Union 3% threshold to exit the excessive deficit procedure in 2027. Economists including Marcello Messori noted that remaining under European fiscal procedures constrains government spending flexibility, particularly as public borrowing costs rise and structural reforms become necessary to support productivity.