Obama sceptical Trump's Iran deal will differ from 2015 pact, warns against open war
The former US president urged Washington to exhaust diplomatic channels, even for agreements that only solve 80 to 90 percent of the problem, rather than risk open conflict.
Obama voices doubts
Barack Obama has poured cold water on the idea that a potential US-Iran agreement could be a meaningful upgrade from the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated during his own presidency. In an interview with ABC News, excerpts of which were published on Sunday, he called it "almost impossible" that any new deal "will be substantively different or constitute a significant improvement over the deal we had in the first place."
It is almost impossible that any deal that emerges will be substantively different or constitute a significant improvement over the deal we had in the first place.
The original accord "worked for a long time" before the United States withdrew, Obama noted, referencing Donald Trump's 2018 decision to unilaterally pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The 2015 benchmark
The JCPOA was signed in Vienna in July 2015 after years of painstaking multilateral diplomacy. It operated on a "nuclear restrictions in exchange for sanctions relief" model. After the US exit and reimposition of what the Trump administration called a maximum pressure campaign, Iran gradually breached all limits, pushing uranium enrichment back to levels near 60 percent.
Diplomacy over bombardment
Obama framed the choice as one between imperfect deals and open war. He argued that in foreign policy crises, the impulse to impose solutions through force or bombardment can seem attractive, but it is better to explore diplomatic paths and accept agreements that address 80 or 90 percent of a problem rather than none at all.
It reminds us that, faced with many complex foreign policy problems, the idea that we can simply impose our will through force or through bombings to find solutions can sometimes look appealing, but it is better to take the time to explore diplomatic avenues and exhaust the possibilities of reaching agreements that don't solve 100 percent of the problem, but solve 80, 90 percent.
He expressed hope that the bombings would stop and that ordinary people would no longer suffer the consequences of war.
Trump's announcement
Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the United States would sign an agreement with Iran on Sunday to end the Middle East war, though Tehran has not yet confirmed the claim. The remarks come as the region remains on edge, and Obama's intervention underscores the deep partisan divide over how to handle Iran, even as the prospect of a new accord emerges.
