NATO summit opens in Ankara as Europe races to meet Trump's defense spending demands

Defense spending promises

European allies and Canada now spend around 4 percent of GDP on defense and security, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. That figure breaks down into roughly 2.5 percent for classic defense and 1.5 percent for broader security-related outlays like infrastructure. The alliance's target, set at the 2025 Hague summit, is 5 percent by 2035 (3.5 percent core, 1.5 percent wider). Rutte said the increase by Europeans and Canadians for 2025 and 2026 together totals 258 billion US dollars.

Here in Ankara I expect the nations to present clear, concrete and credible plans to achieve these five percent.

Germany expects to hit the 5 percent mark by 2029, according to government figures. Chancellor Friedrich Merz described a multibillion-euro submarine deal with Canada, announced just before the summit, as a strong signal of transatlantic cooperation. Canada will buy up to twelve submarines from Kiel-based shipyard TKMS.

Trump's demands and US posture

President Trump has renewed his criticism of European allies, calling their contributions "ridiculous" and accusing them of insufficient solidarity during the Iran war. The US has signaled it will reduce military capabilities available to NATO, including withdrawing nuclear-powered submarines armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, a carrier strike group, and a long-range bomber unit. European nations lack the means to replace those capabilities.

We are building a more European NATO so that this NATO can remain transatlantic.

NATO diplomats privately acknowledge the summit's main goal is to keep Trump satisfied. Organizers plan a "big reveal" of new arms contracts, staged with the drama of a television show, to show that last year's spending promises are being implemented.

Ukraine aid package

The summit is expected to approve a new two-year military aid pledge for Ukraine: 70 billion euros annually, totaling 140 billion euros. However, 60 billion of that comes from an EU loan package running to end-2027, leaving 80 billion to be funded nationally by NATO members. Of that 80 billion, half consists of previously announced money, meaning only 40 billion euros is genuinely new for 2027.

It is extremely important that the world, above all America and our European partners, bring strong decisions from the NATO summit to support our air defense and protect civilians.

President Zelenskyy is in Ankara after a Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv killed 22 people and wounded around 90. Rutte urged allies to maintain support, saying Ukraine is changing battlefield dynamics through the courage and ingenuity of its forces.

Friction and expectations

The summit, which begins with a dinner tonight and runs through Wednesday, faces potential friction over the Strait of Hormuz, though that is not formally a NATO matter. Trump is scheduled to meet Zelenskyy on the sidelines on Wednesday. Merz hopes for a "spirit of Ankara" that signals unity despite the strains.