Trump arrives in Ankara for NATO summit as allies scramble to meet defence spending targets

Defence industry forum opens

Today's Defence Industry Forum in Ankara launched the summit, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte promising breakthroughs in strategic airlift, ground surveillance, drones, and AWACS replacement. A panel with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed EU-NATO convergence. Italian defence giant Leonardo's CEO Lorenzo Mariani joined a panel on societal readiness alongside Finnish President Stubb and Dutch PM Jetten. Key industrial announcements included a feasibility study for European production of Raytheon's AMRAAM missiles involving seven nations, and a letter of intent for a Lockheed Martin PAC-3 Patriot maintenance centre with five countries.

Trump's arrival and the summit agenda

President Trump landed in Ankara at 14:15 local time and met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at 15:15. The two leaders have a strong personal rapport, which Turkish officials hope will ease alliance frictions. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the New York Times:

For Trump it is simply a question of trust and friendship. We want to leverage this friendship for the common good, for the entire NATO family.

This evening, leaders will attend a dinner. Tomorrow's compact summit session begins at 11:15 after a family photo, followed by Trump's bilateral with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at 14:30 and a press conference at 16:15.

1. Jul 7, 2026Defence Industry Forum opens
2. Jul 7, 02:15 PMTrump arrives in Ankara
3. Jul 7, 03:15 PMTrump-Erdogan bilateral meeting
4. EveningNATO leaders' dinner
5. Jul 8, 10:50 AMFamily photo
6. Jul 8, 11:15 AMSummit session begins
7. Jul 8, 02:30 PMTrump meets Zelensky
8. Jul 8, 04:15 PMTrump press conference

Spending surge and rearmament

Rutte said European allies and Canada are now investing about 4% of GDP in defence, with $258 billion in additional spending across 2025 and 2026. He praised Trump for driving the rebalancing:

I praise him for this.

The 2025 Hague summit set a target of 5% of GDP by 2035, split into 3.5% direct defence investment and 1.5% for security-related activities. Rutte expects countries to present "clear, concrete and credible plans" in Ankara. Italy currently spends 2.8% and aims to add half a percentage point or more between 2027 and 2029. However, US Ambassador Matt Whitaker stressed that the summit will measure not just spending but concrete military capabilities acquired.

Turkey's strategic ambitions

Ankara is positioning itself as an indispensable security partner for Europe, leveraging its geographic location, NATO's second-largest army, and a booming defence industry. Defence and aerospace exports rose 47.1% year-on-year, with 57.3% going to NATO allies. Turkey wants to be included in all European defence initiatives. Analyst Riccardo Gasco noted that Italy is becoming the main laboratory for Europe-Turkey defence cooperation, citing the Leonardo-Baykar joint venture and renewed dialogue on the SAMP/T missile system. Erdogan's ability to talk to both Zelensky and Putin adds diplomatic weight.

Underlying tensions

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-Europe rift began at an emergency Brussels summit in late January, triggered by the US operation in Venezuela and Trump's threats over Greenland. French President Emmanuel Macron warned:

We are drawing a line from which there is no going back.

Belgian PM Bart De Wever cautioned that Europe risked becoming "a miserable slave" of Washington. Italian PM Giorgia Meloni initially urged dialogue, but by March, after the US military operation against Iran, she reportedly told fellow leaders that

Trump is not reasonable.

Rutte's strategy, described as "flattery diplomacy," is to give Trump a victory by raising defence spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Ukraine and the way forward

Support for Ukraine remains a central issue. European allies are preparing another €70 billion in military aid for this year and next, though Italy insists that from 2027 individual countries should decide. The US has moved an aircraft carrier group from the Mediterranean to the Indo-Pacific and may withdraw 5,000 troops from Europe, but the strategic impact is limited. The summit's political centrepiece is approval of NATO's new defence plans for Europe, covering responses to attacks, command authority, and readiness levels.